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Area forecast discussion 
southcentral and southwest Alaska 
500 PM akdt Thursday Aug 28 2008 


Model discussion... 
models are in fair agreement through Sunday afternoon but start to 
have problems finding common through the beginning of next week. The 
main area of disagreement is on the handling of the storm moving into 
the Gulf of Alaska Sunday night. GFS weakens it rapidly through 
Monday while the European keeps it intact through Tuesday morning. 
The European model appears to have the more reasonable solution. 


Analysis and upper levels... 
the upper trough over the Kuskokwim Delta and western Bristol Bay is 
not moving east as fast models indicated, but is definitely weakening 
as the upper ridge just to the west of it begins to move through it. 


A broad low pressure trough extending out of western Canada has 
weaken a bit since Wednesday but is still producing areas of showers 
over Mainland Alaska. The surface ridge along the West Coast 
continues to move east and has cleared the skies over the Kuskokwim 
Delta. A moderate low over the north-central Bering Sea continues to 
move southeastward. 


Short term forecast... 
upper air...the upper ridge along the West Coast of Alaska will pass 
through and dissipate the upper trough over southwest Alaska by early 
Friday morning. The ridge will continue to move east through the Gulf 
of Alaska and the eastern Mainland Saturday and Saturday night. The 
upper low over northern Bering Sea will move near the pribilofs by 
Saturday night. 


At the surface...the ridge along the West Coast will continue to move 
east and weaken the trough over central Mainland through Saturday. 
The low over north-central Bering Sea will follow its upper level 
component to the the pribilofs Saturday night. A developing low over 
the central North Pacific will move to about 200 miles southwest of 
Kodiak Island Saturday night. 


Southwest Alaska weather... 
the areas of rain over the southwest interior due to the upper trough 
will diminish tonight. The skies over the southwest interior will 
clear late tonight and Friday morning as the upper ridge moves 
through the area. Rain associated with the Bering Sea storm will move 
into the Kuskokwim Delta and western Bristol Bay Friday and will 
slowly spread into the rest of Bristol Bay and the western Kuskokwim 
valley Saturday. 


Southcentral Alaska weather... 
showers over southcentral Alaska will persist through Friday then 
diminish Friday night as both upper and surface ridges move into 
eastern Alaska. Skies will begin to clear from the west late Friday 
and spread to the rest of the area Saturday. Rain associated with 
gusty winds associated with the storm coming out of the central 
Pacific will move into Kodiak Island and the western Gulf Saturday 
night. 


Long term forecast... 
the low over the southeast Bering Sea will dissipate Sunday. The low 
southwest of Kodiak will move into the western Gulf Sunday night then 
will drift east and dissipate over the eastern Gulf Tuesday. An 
intensifying low south of the western Aleutians Saturday night will 
move into the eastern Aleutians Tuesday. 




Aer/alu...watch/warning summary 
public...none. 
Marine...none. 
Fire weather...none. 


Nm Aug 08 

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