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Northern Alaska forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Fairbanks Alaska 
235 PM akst sun Nov 22 2009 


Discussion... 
upper low over northwest Alaska in the process of shearing apart with 
warmer air pouring northward into Mainland Alaska ahead of deep 
western Gulf of Alaska storm. Meanwhile...a cold low aloft 
presently near 83n/150w will move a bit SW with a trough extending 
southwest toward the wrangel island/western Chukchi Sea but is not 
expected to directly impact northern Alaska. 


At the surface...old 970 mb low north of Cold Bay will be absorbed 
Monday as 963 center 250 nm south-southeast of Kodiak moves to Cook Inlet by Monday 
afternoon and weakens to 974 mb. The associated occlusion is 
moving northward at this time and producing some overrunning snow. A new 988 mb 
low will develop over the Yukon Delta Monday night and then move 
westward around the upper low. Another low moving northward through 
the central Gulf of Alaska will bring another shot of warm air 
northward...while a new low moving into the southern Bering Sea 
early Wednesday has massive model discrepancy on depth...and to a lessor 
extant location. 


North Slope...clear and cold inland will start to moderate 
Monday as clouds and warmer air spread across the Brooks range. 
Some increase in coastal winds by Tuesday. 


West Coast...based on web cams it appears models over forecast 
precipitation in zones 214-215...so we have canceled advisory. Seward 
Peninsula southward...areas of snow will move through as short waves/surface 
lows moves around. Minimal precipitation kotz northward. Winds increasing most 
areas with some blowing snow...though probably not enough for 
advisory. 


Interior...air mass moderating rapidly and increasing pressure gradient will 
allow all areas to warm...though some wind protected eastern 
valleys will remain chilly with a lack of clouds. Small amounts of 
snow possible in the Alaska Range and northern zones next 36 
hours. 




Coastal hazard potential days 3 and 4...storms appear to remain 
too far south and east for coastal flood issues in the diminishing 
areas of open water. 


&& 


Afg watches/warnings/advisories... 
heavy freezing spray warning for pkz210-pkz220-pkz225. 


Small Craft Advisory for pkz210-pkz220. 
&& 


$$ 


Rt Nov 09 

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