185 
fxak69 pafg 191341 
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Northern Alaska forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Fairbanks Alaska 
441 am akst Wednesday Nov 19 2008 


Discussion... 
an upper trough slicing across the northwest Brooks range early this 
morning will dig into the western interior ton. The 500 mb heights 
are not all that low with the trough as much of the cold air is 
found in the low levels. The upper low will continue to drop south 
with models differing to some degree as to how much of the energy 
merges with a second low in the Gulf on Thursday. Models are in 
reasonable agreement by the weekend that an upper low will cover 
much of western Alaska. 


Interior...the cold air is evident on the 12z pafa sounding with an 
850 mb temperature of -19c. Temperatures at the surface this morning are highly 
dependent upon cloud cover. Poes satellite shows the clearing 
nicely with much of the interior under a clear sky. Some clouds 
linger east of Fairbanks and to the north of Fort Yukon. 
Temperatures 20 to 30 below or colder in valleys where the sky is clear. 
Chandalar Lake has been the cold spot so far this morning 
at 38 below and poes satellite estimates as cold as -42f in some 
of the northern valleys. Clouds are beginning to increase from 
the south ahead of a low in the Gulf with light snow and flurries 
in the upper Tanana Valley. Overrunning snow will spread north and 
west through tonight...and by Thursday afternoon areas of snow 
are expected across much of the central and eastern interior. Quantitative precipitation forecast 
looks to be light...but with the cold air in place it will not 
take much moisture to accumulate an inch or two of snow. 


West Coast...no major weather systems are expected anytime soon. 
The pressure gradient tightens across the outer waters of pkz210 as 
high pressure settles into the interior and low pressure develops 
across the western Bering Sea. This will bring Small Craft Advisory 
level winds to the waters west of Saint Lawrence Island by late 
tonight and likely continuing through Friday. The gradient will 
eventually tighten up north of the Bering Strait...but this should 
not occur until Friday. Otherwise...fairly quiet as a high amplitude 
upper ridge gradually builds across the eastern Bering Sea. Areas 
of snow across the northwest zones will diminish this morning with 
add'l accumulations up to an inch. 


North Slope...areas of light snow and flurries today into tonight 
as the upper trough slides south of the area. Somewhat drier Thursday 
into Friday. West winds will gradually veer and become east by Friday as a 
surface ridge begins to build across the high Arctic. Winds may 
reach brisk wind levels by late Friday along parts of the Arctic coast. 


Coastal hazard potential days 3 and 4...none 


&& 


Afg watches/warnings/advisories... 


Small Craft Advisory for pkz210. 
&& 


$$ 


Cumulonimbus Nov 08 

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