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Northern Alaska forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Fairbanks Alaska 
1223 PM akdt Tuesday Aug 19 2008 


Discussion... 


Upper air: long wave trough will move lows south of the area 
through Sat. On sun...models agree with taking short wave north 
from the Gulf of Alaska to the Yukon territory of Canada. There 
are also indications that a trough will enter northwest Alaska 
on sun. The models are not yet in agreement with the timing of 
this feature. 


Surface: high pressure will persist along the North Slope into Friday 
night...then will push east Sat as front approaches from the 
northwest. Low pressure over the Gulf of Alaska will move east Wednesday. 
Another low will form over the Gulf Friday and persist into sun. 


North slope: a couple of weak troughs may cause a little drizzle 
from Prudhoe Bay east this evening and again Thursday night to Friday. 
Otherwise high pressure along the North Slope will keep 
precipitation out of the weather through Sat. Winds will be below 
advisory levels. 


West coast: there is enough instability to produce isolated 
thunderstorms for zone 214 this evening. Otherwise no 
precipitation is expected through the weekend. 


Interior: temperatures at 850 mb are about +3c...but with clear 
skies and light winds...combined with the night time darkness of 
late August...there will be areas of below freezing temperatures 
in low lying areas. Weak low pressure over far eastern zone 226 
and near Northway will produce a few sprinkles or light showers... 
otherwise no precipitation is expected for the interior through 
Wednesday night. On Thursday...low pressure developing along the Alaska Range 
will bring an increase of clouds and showers along the range and 
over the Northway area. The showers may persist into the weekend. 
The European model (ecmwf) and GFS are together in agreement for a rain event for 
our eastern Alaska Range and far southeast interior for day 5/sun. 
We will be keeping a close watch for model continuity. 




Coastal hazard potential days 3 and 4...none 


&& 


Fire weather...none. 




&& 


Hydrology...none. 




&& 


Afg watches/warnings/advisories... 
frost advisory for akz222. 


Small Craft Advisory for pkz225. 
&& 


$$ 


Da Aug 08 

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