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Northern Alaska forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Fairbanks Alaska 
518 am akst Monday Nov 23 2009 


Discussion...a low pressure system centered in the western 
Gulf of Alaska will drift northwest over the Yukon-Kuskokwim 
Delta and weaken rapidly today. Its associated weather front 
currently draped over the y-k Delta from Cape Newenham to Lake 
Minchumina will drift west and continue to weaken and will be 
of little consequence over the next 24 hours...just a few areas 
of light snow. 


Winds will remain elevated over most of the state. Chinook flow 
through the Alaska Range will possibly break through interior 
inversions later today...mixing some moderate winds and warmer 
temperatures down to the surface of currently cold and calm 
basins. Wind gusts in excess of 50 miles per hour are expected to develop 
through Alaska Range passes by this evening. Gusty winds are 
expected to continue through Tuesday. Another Chinook is expected 
later in the week and it could be quite strong...popping 
temperatures up near freezing in some valleys and bringing 
warning level winds to Alaska Range passes if it materializes. 


A few waves rippling through the southerly flow could bring a 
shot of snow to the higher elevations in the central and eastern 
interior as they pass this week. Timing these waves will be tricky. 


Moderating temperatures expected along the North Slope. Colder air 
will remain off shore and keep light on-shore flow going...stratus 
fog and flurries will remain along shore for the next few days. 
Winds will increase through the Brooks range on Tuesday...creating 
areas of blowing snow in the passes and increasing temperatures 
along the Arctic plain. 


Coastal hazard potential days 3 and 4...the GFS and the European model (ecmwf) 
place a 968 mb low just west of Norton Sound and track it west of 
St Lawrence Island on Thursday night/Friday morning...this would 
pull in some colder air from Siberia and push water up into Norton 
Sound should this scenario become reality. However...the gradient 
does not appear to be strong enough and the system does not hang 
around long enough to move the ice packed in the sound. Something 
to keep an eye on though... 


&& 


Afg watches/warnings/advisories... 
heavy freezing spray warning for pkz210-pkz220-pkz225. 


Small Craft Advisory for pkz210-pkz220-pkz225. 


Brisk Wind Advisory for pkz200. 
&& 


$$ 


Ka Nov 09 

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