988 
fxak67 pajk 061326 
afdajk 


Southeast Alaska forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Juneau Alaska 
526 am akdt Sat Sep 6 2008 


Short term...early morning satellite loop indicates an 
intensifying low in the western Gulf pushes main precipitation 
band northward into Bristol Bay and Kodiak Island. A deformation 
zone is forming well east of Kodiak in the north central Gulf and 
sending middle to high clouds eastward towards the alaskan 
Panhandle. A ridge of high pressure continues to build across the 
local areas with moderate subsidence. Several stations in the 
central Panhandle have reported areas of fog...locally dense...as 
of this writing. Water vapor loop hints a quite dry air is moving 
into Southeast Alaska this morning. Pressure gradient remains 
pretty weak with building ridge. 


Models are in fair agreement for short term forecast periods. Used 
06z run NAM to maintain a continuity with the inherited grids for 
this morning forecast package. As the fog layer across the central 
Panhandle lifts with sunrise...Southeast Alaska will see thinning 
out of cloudiness and sunshine filtered through decreasing middle 
clouds during the afternoon hours. An intense low in the western 
Gulf will push a frontal boundary over the north eastern Gulf late 
this afternoon with increasing winds and seas across northern 
outside waters. Expect small craft winds for northern most outside 
waters this afternoon and spreading southeast to include northern 
half of outside waters tonight. While southern Panhandle remains 
dry through tonight...cloudiness will once again increase over 
northern Panhandle with the incoming front late this evening into 
tonight with developing rain. Rain will gradually spread southeast 
across the Panhandle on Sunday. 


&& 


Previous discussion... /issued 1126 am akdt Friday Sep 5 2008/ 


Long term...model agreement remained fairly high on the large 
scale. Starting with a longwave trough west of the area with ridge 
over the Panhandle...then low press moving south of the Aleutians 
north toward Kodiak. A ridge building over Southeast Alaska on Tuesday with another 
low in the west Gulf Wednesday. Models brought the front for sun and the 
middle week front in a bit faster and stronger than previous grids 
with GFS being the fastest. Coordination with weather forecast office pafc...went with 
a 50/50 blend of current grids with the 05/12z GFS. Brought in the 
higher probability of precipitation a bit further east on sun but overall the precipitation 
pattern remained consistent. Increased probability of precipitation on Monday to correspond 
to a more convective environment over the central Panhandle. Kept 
the drying trend on Tuesday and brought the probability of precipitation in a bit faster over 
paya on Wednesday with the slightly faster frontal forecast. 


&& 


Ajk watches/warnings/advisories... 
public...none. 
Marine...Small Craft Advisory for pkz042-043-051-052. 


$$ 


Sja 

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