369 
fxus64 kbmx 061928 
afdbmx 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Birmingham Alabama 
228 PM CDT Sat Sep 6 2008 


Discussion... 


Low level trough over east Alabama will slowly push out of the 
area later tonight. A few lingering showers will be possible this 
evening in the southeast with the possibility of some patchy fog 
developing late tonight. 


Quiet Sunday and Monday with near normal temperatures...perhaps 
one or two isolated showers in the southeast. By Monday night...an 
upper level trough shifts into the Ohio Valley and persists through 
Tuesday. This trough will also bring another weak front into the 
southeast with some scattered showers on Tuesday. The trough could 
also act to weaken the upper ridging over the Gulf of Mexico and 
allow major Hurricane Ike to begin a northwestward motion from Cuba 
into the central Gulf of Mexico. This seems to be going theme of 
the 12z models. Thereafter things become a little more muddled. 


By the end of the week a more prominent trough begins to dig into 
the eastern Continental U.S.. if its deep enough...it could sufficiently draw 
Ike northward towards the central Gulf by the weekend as depicted 
by the 12z GFS. The 12z ec also develops the late week trough but 
somehow manages to miss Ike which then gets wrapped around a 
southwestern ridge and pulled into Mexico. Because of the 
uncertainty...not many changes were made for the second half of 
the week into the weekend. Temperatures should generally be at or 
slightly above climatology. 


&& 


Aviation...18z taf discussion. 


A weak surface front extends across east Alabama. West of the 
surface trough...light northerly flow and low clouds extend well back 
into Mississippi. An inversion around 850mb has trapped the low 
level moisture in place and ceilings will slowly rise through the MVFR 
category this afternoon. Mgm and toi will stay on east side of 
surface front this afternoon and scattered-broken clouds expected with bases 
around 4000 feet. Showers and a few thunderstorms will develop along and east 
of the surface front...and vcsh included in the mgm and toi tafs. 
Activity should diminish quickly after 00z. 


There is much uncertainty after 00z regarding lingering cloud cover 
and the potential for fog. Skies will probably become scattered in 
most locations by 00z. NAM/GFS point forecast soundings do not show 
any saturated layers in the boundary layer and only NGM MOS guidance 
shows any significant fog. Expect MVFR fog at most locations after 
05z but possibly IFR ceilings/fog across Alabama. 






&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Gadsden 62 90 62 91 65 / 10 0 0 10 20 
Anniston 64 90 66 91 67 / 10 0 0 10 20 
Birmingham 65 91 67 91 68 / 10 0 0 10 20 
Tuscaloosa 65 92 65 92 68 / 10 0 0 10 20 
Calera 66 91 66 91 67 / 10 0 0 10 20 
Auburn 67 91 69 89 69 / 20 0 0 20 20 
Montgomery 69 91 68 93 69 / 10 0 0 20 20 
Troy 69 91 67 92 67 / 20 10 0 20 20 


&& 


Bmx watches/warnings/advisories...none. 
&& 


$$ 


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