887 
fxus64 kmob 071953 
afdmob 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Mobile Alabama 
252 PM CDT sun Sep 7 2008 


Short term...(tonight through Wednesday night)a surface ridge will 
persist across the southern states through middle week as "ike" slips 
into the southeast Gulf and heads west northwest. In the immediate 
short term may need to keep showers into this evening as some 
showers are developing at early afternoon along the coast. Otherwise 
expect isolated showers/thunderstorms again Monday 
afternoon...mainly I-65 and east as the moisture is a little better 
in that area. Similar probability of precipitation on Tuesday except may be confined closer 
to the coast. Wednesday may be the day we begin to see some fringe 
effects from Ike...hopefully well to the south but close enough for 
some additional moisture to be spun up this way. Do have probability of precipitation 
trending lower to the west. Temperatures at or just above normal 
with heat indices creeping up to around 105 near the beaches on 
Monday and Tuesday. /11 


Long term...(thursday through sunday) this segment of the forecast 
will be dependant on the future track of Ike. If Ike follows the 
current forecast from the hurricane center we will have increasing 
probability of precipitation toward the end of the week and into the weekend with easterly 
winds increasing on Thursday...especially over the southern sections 
of the forecast area. Did adjust the middle week probability of precipitation down a bit to 
account for a slower and slightly more southern track. As always... 
please stay informed by keeping up with the latest official 
forecast. /11 


&& 


Aviation...(for 18z forecast)good low level moisture axis over the 
forecast area will keep low cloud cover bouncing between broken and scattered...but ceilings 
are expected to remain at VFR levels. Only precipitation is expected to be 
along the nf Florida coast as a weak Gulf Breeze moves inland into 
tonight. 


/16 


&& 


Marine...surface high pressure will build over the central/northern 
plains through tonight...then shift east behind an upper system 
moving along the US/California border. This high will push a weak front 
towards the northern Gulf Coast...but as the centre of Ike moves 
west of Cuba late Tuesday...increased northeasterly flow will set up 
over the southwestern Gulf by Tuesday night. Until then...light flow 
and generally settled seas will affect Alabama/northwest Florida coastal waters. 


As Ike continues on a northwesterly track as upper level high 
pressure builds west over the northeastern Gulf...an increased swell 
will begin to affect Alabama/northwest Florida coastal waters beginning Wednesday. As 
Ike passes southwest of the area later Wednesday night into Thursday 
night...winds will increase to tropical storms levels. Latest 
guidance is advertising the center of Ike moving onshore over the 
eastern Texas Gulf Coast late Saturday afternoon/Saturday 
evening...then taking a northeastern track as an upper system moving 
over the northeastern Continental U.S. Pushes the upper high over the 
northeastern Gulf eastward over the western Atlantic. 


There is still quite a spread in the advertised solutions the 
farther Ike gets into the latter half of the week...so significant 
changes are possible as Ike approaches. 


/16 




&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Mobile 69 91 72 92 / 05 20 10 10 
Pensacola 72 90 74 93 / 10 20 10 20 
Destin 73 87 76 89 / 10 20 10 20 
Evergreen 65 91 67 91 / 10 10 10 10 
Waynesboro 63 91 67 91 / 05 10 10 10 
Camden 64 93 67 92 / 05 10 10 10 


&& 


Mob watches/warnings/advisories... 
Alabama...none. 
Florida...none. 
MS...none. 
GM...none. 
&& 


$$