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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Birmingham Alabama 
635 PM CDT Thursday Aug 21 2008 


Update...for aviation discussion. 


&& 


Discussion...Fay still remains along the eastern coast of Florida 
and at tropical storm strength. The official NHC forecast track has 
Fay weakening a bit and very close to the land/sea interface of the 
northern Gulf Coast...but still into far southwest Alabama by 
Sunday morning. Plenty of uncertainty exist with the track 
thereafter with some turn to the north expected. Will keep the 
forecast trend intact and take a mix of NHC guidance and GFS MOS. 


Initially...surface ridge will keep air a bit drier in a wedge 
across the northeastern quadrant of central Alabama. Better rain 
chances tonight west and south. The outer edges of Fay's influence 
will reach far southeastern areas Friday afternoon. These 
influences slowly move east to west through Monday. The best rain 
chances and highest rain amounts appear to be confined to south 
central Alabama...generally along and south of the US 80/Interstate 
85 corridor. The potential for some excessive rainfall exist with 3 
or more inches possible in this area through the weekend. Please 
view the hydrologic outlook (esfbmx) for further details. Check back 
on the multimedia briefing and severe weather potential statement for further detail changes as we 
approach this event. 


As the pressure gradient tightens across the area...gusty winds 
will be possible from Friday afternoon through Sunday. A few gusts 
of 25 to 30 miles per hour will be possible...with the highest potential south 
of Interstate 20. 


As with any tropical system...there will be small chance of an 
isolated tornado as the system glances the southern reaches. Will 
have to monitor any bands that form north of the remnant 
circulation...especially Saturday and Sunday. 


Monday and beyond...the forecast has plenty of uncertainty. What is 
left of Fay will have to exit the region first. 


Took a mix of MOS guidance through the period. Lows nearly seasonal 
around 70 with plenty of low level moisture present. Highs below 
normal due to clouds/rain and moisture. 


75/linhares 


&& 


Aviation...00z taf discussion. VFR conditions expected through the 
period at tcl...bhm and eet...although easterly winds and clouds 
will increase from the east. At anb...mgm and toi...some effects 
from Fay will be felt...look for MVFR ceilings after 08z with some 
isolated showers/thunderstorms developing after 15z. Easterly winds 
10 to 15 miles per hour with gusts to 20 miles per hour possible...especially after 15z. 


&& 


Bmx watches/warnings/advisories...none. 
&& 


$$ 


75/50