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Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Birmingham Alabama 
555 am CST Monday Nov 23 2009 


Update...for aviation. 


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Short term...today through Wednesday. 
/Discussion from 404 am CST Monday Nov 23 2009/ 


Clouds...drizzle...fog. These will be the key words today around 
the region. The upper level trough and surface low from yesterday 
have moved up the Atlantic coastline...and have left plenty of low 
level moisture across all of the southeast. These clouds should 
stick around all day...which will leave temperatures fairly cool 
today as there won't be much sun to heat things up. 


The thinking yesterday was that we could see some clearing tonight 
and Tuesday morning ahead of the next front that is prognosticated to move 
through across the eastern half of the United States Tuesday 
night...but now I am more inclined to leave clouds in the forecast. 
It looks like we will have a quasi-wedge set up behind the 
aforementioned surface low...as it moves off the coast. This should 
keep plenty of low level moisture in place for at least mostly 
cloudy skies through Tuesday. Have come down a little for highs on 
Tuesday because of this. 


Now for Tuesday nights frontal passage...expectation is still for it 
to Peter out before reaching US. Even with the low level moisture 
hanging around Monday and Tuesday...forecast soundings are still 
pretty dry...especially aloft...and there just is no forcing to 
speak of as the associated surface low is centered well to our 
north. So...will maintain small chance probability of precipitation across the northern 
half of the County Warning Area Tuesday night as this very weak impulse passes 
through the region. 


The good news is that this impulse should clear the clouds out of 
central Alabama on Wednesday as drier air filters into the region. 
Daytime temperatures should remain in the low to middle 60s. 


Long term...Thursday through Monday. 


The upper level trough that will be responsible for tuesdays frontal 
passage will again be the culprit in swinging at least one...maybe 
two more impulses through the region. The first one looks to move 
through on Thursday...but because of some clouds that will be with 
it...temperatures should only drop into the middle 30s Friday 
morning. The one that will count should move through during the day 
Friday. This is the one that should give US clear skies Friday 
night and a much better push of cold Canadian air...leaving US with 
possibly the coldest temperatures of the year so far. Keep in mind 
that National Weather Service Birmingham does not issue frost or freeze products after 
Thanksgiving. 


High pressure should settle into the region Saturday and Sunday... 
but will be short lived as our next weather maker could be on our 
doorstep by Monday. Lets put it this way...whether the Euro or the 
GFS verifies...we could be very busy weather wise by the start of 
next week. 


27 


&& 


Aviation...12z taf discussion. 


Low cloudiness will remain a factor with LIFR to IFR ceilings to 
continue this am across c Alabama as wrap around moisture from the low 
pressure system to the east still plagues US across the state. Have 
some very light drizzle across the area. But it is so light... 
thinking the br covers better. Clouds are expected to lift a little 
higher to around MVFR but are expected to remain through the 
forecast. Some fog to remain for a few hours this morning. However... 
fog expected to return earlier for tonight and go down lower and 
across more sites than this am. 


08 


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Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Gadsden 54 43 63 43 61 / 0 0 0 20 10 
Anniston 52 44 63 42 64 / 0 0 0 20 10 
Birmingham 57 47 64 45 63 / 0 0 0 20 10 
Tuscaloosa 56 45 66 44 63 / 0 0 0 10 10 
Calera 56 46 64 45 63 / 0 0 0 10 10 
Auburn 56 47 64 44 63 / 0 0 0 10 10 
Montgomery 58 44 67 47 68 / 0 0 0 10 10 
Troy 58 44 66 46 66 / 0 0 0 10 10 


&& 


Bmx watches/warnings/advisories...none. 


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$$ 


27/08