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fxus64 klzk 301124 aaa 
afdlzk 


Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Little Rock Arkansas 
624 am CDT Sat Aug 30 2008 


Aviation... 
IFR/LIFR conditions at khro...otherwise VFR this morning. Fog will 
dissipate by 15z...with cumulus developing at the southern sites. 
Isolated thunderstorms and rain will be possible this afternoon...but not enough to 
mention in tafs. Have included cumulonimbus groups this afternoon to show 
convective potential. After 02z...sky clear with drier air moving in 
behind the front. 
&& 


Previous discussion... /issued 345 am CDT Sat Aug 30 2008/ 


Short term...today through Tuesday night 
weak frontal boundary extends across the southwestern part of the forecast area early this 
morning. Patchy fog had also formed in some locations and will continue to 
mention through early this morning. The boundary is expected to dissipate 
later today. Cannot rule out isolated rain showers/thunderstorms and rain vicinity of the boundary... 
so will continue to carry low probability of precipitation for mainly this afternoon. Slightly drier 
air will advect into part of northestern Arkansas as weak high pressure builds into the 
region. 


The weak high pressure system will prevail over much of Arkansas through sun... 
resulting in a general east-NE wind flow. Temperatures are expected to remain at 
of just above normal over the next two days. Little in the way or 
organized rainfall is expected tonight and sun. 


Focus will quickly shift to the eventual track and strength of Gustav 
as we close out the Holiday weekend. Models and NHC guidance continue to 
indicate a landfall over the central la coast Monday night/early Tuesday...with a 
slow nwwd movement thereafter. Opted to raise probability of precipitation into likely Cat 
for southern Arkansas Tuesday and Tuesday night based on these trends. Also lowered maximum 
temperatures a few degrees Tuesday with incrsg clouds. Any changes with the 
eventual track will have an impact on later fcst/S. 


Long term...Wednesday through Friday 
much of the extended forecast will depend on where Gustav makes 
landfall and the eventual track of Gustav. At this time...have 
continued the trend of the highest probability of precipitation in the south. Have also 
trended temperatures down from guidance due to the increased cloud cover 
and rainfall. 


Models differing in the handling of Gustav...and continue to differ 
in the handling of a cold front moving south for the latter part of 
next week. Have continued rain chances through the extended...due to 
issues with timing and placement of these major features. 
&& 


Lzk watches/warnings/advisories...none. 
&& 


$$ 


Aviation...58