947 
fxus64 klzk 070536 
afdlzk 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Little Rock Arkansas 
1236 am CDT Tuesday Oct 7 2008 


Aviation... 
the longwave trough to our west will continue to affect our forecast 
area throughout this forecast period. The trough is expected to move 
out as the northern section gets in phase with the closed low at its 
base. This pattern will keep sufficient energy over the area to 
trigger numerous showers and storms that are expected to produce 
heavy rains and gusty winds primarily...although some nickel size 
hail cannot be ruled out. Conditions will be LIFR in the most 
intense cores...with MVFR ceiling and visibility being prevalent. Expect fog 
to drop visibility to IFR levels around sunrise...especially over areas 
that have received the heavier rains. 


&& 


Previous discussion... /issued 835 PM CDT Monday Oct 6 2008/ 


Discussion... 
overall forecast on track. Evening convection has pushed over west 
and central parts of Arkansas. Isolated severe storms were seen...with 
wind and hail...with areas of heavy rain and isolated flooding the 
main threats. Currently...the southern parts of Arkansas have had the most 
moisture and instability...due to heating differential during the 
day time...and isolated severe storms have formed. Will update a bit 
later for convection trends...but overall chance to likely probability of precipitation this 
evening. Overnight chance to Cat probability of precipitation in forecast as the system 
approaches from the west...then drifts through on Tuesday. (59) 


Previous discussion... /issued 221 PM CDT Monday Oct 6 2008/ 


Discussion... 


Band of showers and thunderstorms reached the Oklahoma Arkansas 
border late in the morning and are expected to continue an eastward 
progression through this evening. Appears the most unstable 
portion of this band is concentrated to the southwest corner of 
the state...where the most sunshine and was seen today. 


A few strong storms could be seen as the band of convection moves 
east. However...dense cloud cover over the north half of the state 
today has limited instability in this region. Locally heavy 
rainfall will be possible overnight...but did not mention in the 
grids as forward progression has increased with latest model runs. 
Re development will be likely on Tuesday afternoon as a dry slot 
moves ahead of the cold front. Latest soundings are showing the 
potential for severe weather Tuesday afternoon/evening...with convective available potential energy 
and swi increasing during the heat of the afternoon. 


Drier air will move into the state late Tuesday with only a slight 
chance of rain in north Arkansas on Wednesday. This will be in 
association with any wrap around moisture from the exiting system. 


Meanwhile...a second trough will be building out west. Long term 
models are facing some discrepancies with the GFS bringing a cut off 
low down into the plain states and keeping it nearly stationary for 
several days. Moisture enhances out ahead of the developing 
system...with a frontal boundary lifting out late in the extended. 
The European model (ecmwf) shows a mostly dry extended period...with the trough 
remaining north over The Rockies. The cold front will then move 
across the forecast area at the end of the period. Went with a blend of long 
term models and kept slight probability of precipitation in over the 
weekend...increasing through Monday. 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Batesville Arkansas 72 52 75 49 / 80 60 20 10 
Camden Arkansas 78 56 81 50 / 80 40 10 10 
Harrison Arkansas 66 50 73 47 / 80 40 20 10 
Hot Springs Arkansas 76 54 79 49 / 70 30 10 10 
Little Rock Arkansas 77 55 79 51 / 80 50 10 10 
Monticello Arkansas 79 57 80 52 / 80 60 10 10 
Mount Ida Arkansas 75 53 79 47 / 70 30 10 10 
Mountain Home Arkansas 68 50 73 47 / 80 50 20 10 
Newport Arkansas 74 54 75 50 / 80 60 20 10 
Pine Bluff Arkansas 78 56 79 53 / 80 50 10 10 
Russellville Arkansas 72 53 77 46 / 70 30 10 10 
Searcy Arkansas 76 54 78 50 / 80 50 10 10 
Stuttgart Arkansas 78 56 79 53 / 80 60 10 10 
&& 


Lzk watches/warnings/advisories...none. 
&& 


$$ 




Aviation...60/32