647 
fxus64 klzk 200823 
afdlzk 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Little Rock Arkansas 
322 am CDT Wednesday Aug 20 2008 


Short term...today through Saturday 
several features of note this morning on surface and upper air 
analyses...which will continue to influence our weather through 
much of the short term periods. Remnants of a stalled surface 
boundary currently located from the Red River valley of North 
Texas/southern Oklahoma...extending across southern Arkansas... 
with surface wave of low pressure developing along it between 
Dallas and Ardmore. Upper low continues to spin to the west of 
Wichita Falls...and looks to be moving little. 


Surface wave will propagate eastward along the boundary during the 
next 24 hours. Upper low will continue to send up Pacific moisture 
into the region...with isentropic uplift of Gulf moisture along 
and north of the surface boundary. So...it GOES without saying the 
rain will continue through today and tonight with a continual 
moisture feed. Some areas could receive one to two inches of 
rain...mostly north of I-40 and east of I-30. However...feel that 
the heavy rainfall threat will be localized and not widespread... 
given the general soaking tendency of it...and three and six hour 
flash flood guidance in most places is above three inches. Will 
still monitor though...and will continue to mention in the 
hazardous weather outlook. 


Models still forecasting the upper low to become more of an open 
wave with system lifting out into the Central Plains on Thursday. 
Remnants of the surface boundary will push northward as well. Rain 
chances will gradually decrease tonight and Thursday from the 
southwest...as deep layer moisture ejects out with the upper low. 


However...troughing will remain in the area for the remainder of 
the period...being blocked by a ridge developing over the 
Appalachians...and to the south of that what will either be the 
remnants of Fay...or Fay herself /depending on how far south that 
ridge develops/. So...there will be continued shower and 
thunderstorm chances through Saturday. 


Temperatures will start out below seasonal averages. In fact...way 
below seasonal averages with most places across northern and 
central Arkansas not getting out of the 70s today. With the 
surface boundary remnants lifting northward...warmer air will 
return...with readings moderating through the weekend. 
&& 


Long term...Saturday night through Tuesday 
several issues arise in the long term. To begin the extended...the 
previously mentioned upper level low that affected Arkansas during 
the middle of the work week...will have moved well northeast of the 
state. Meanwhile...a new frontal boundary will approach the state to 
start the period. This front looks to interact with moisture already 
in place over the region. Have slight chances in the forecast as the 
models seem to agree with precipitation moving into the region by 
Sunday. Kept slight chances in the forecast through Monday to 
account for this frontal boundary. 


Another issue that brings concern is the remains of Tropical Storm 
Fay. An upper level ridge is expected to build over the western 
United States...pushing the storm remnants to the east. Most recent 
GFS run tracks the system east of the state...keeping the effect on 
Arkansas minimal. Also...the European model (ecmwf) moves it along the eastern 
Seaboard. At this time...kept forecast dry for late Monday and 
Tuesday. Will continue to monitor future model runs to keep an eye 
on this track. 


Temperatures are expected to be at near normal levels through the 
long term. High temperatures will range from the upper 80s to lower 
90s...and lows will be in upper 60s to lower 70s. 
&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Batesville Arkansas 77 67 81 69 / 90 70 60 50 
Camden Arkansas 82 68 85 70 / 90 60 50 40 
Harrison Arkansas 73 65 77 66 / 90 70 60 40 
Hot Springs Arkansas 78 68 81 70 / 90 70 50 40 
Little Rock Arkansas 77 67 84 70 / 90 70 60 40 
Monticello Arkansas 83 70 87 70 / 90 60 60 40 
Mount Ida Arkansas 76 66 80 68 / 90 60 50 40 
Mountain Home Arkansas 76 66 80 68 / 90 70 60 50 
Newport Arkansas 77 68 82 69 / 90 70 60 50 
Pine Bluff Arkansas 79 68 83 70 / 90 70 60 40 
Russellville Arkansas 75 67 81 69 / 90 70 50 40 
Searcy Arkansas 77 68 83 69 / 90 70 60 50 
Stuttgart Arkansas 77 68 83 71 / 90 70 60 50 
&& 


Lzk watches/warnings/advisories...none. 
&& 


$$ 


Short term...57 / long term...60