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Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Little Rock Arkansas 
625 PM CDT Thursday Aug 21 2008 


Aviation... 
scattered thunderstorms and rain will dissipate around sunset this evening. With 
plenty of moisture remaining...MVFR fog will prevail...and have 
tempo IFR conditions. The fog will burn off around 15z...with cumulus 
developing Friday afternoon. 
&& 


Previous discussion... /issued 248 PM CDT Thursday Aug 21 2008/ 


Short term...tonight through Monday 
scattered showers and thunderstorms have spread across the area this 
afternoon. Klzk radar shows the strongest storms in the northeast 
and southwest. Dew points have climbed to the upper 60s to middle 70s 
with southerly low level flow. Most of these showers are diurnally 
driven and will see a decrease in activity after sunset. 


Models are in good agreement through the short term. The upper low 
just west of Arkansas will continue to fill in and move northeast 
Friday. This will decrease the rain chances over Arkansas. 
However...several short waves will move through the southwest upper 
level flow to keep showers and thunderstorms in the forecast through 
the weekend. A front will drop out of the plains to the Missouri 
border by Monday. Also...Fay will be moving west near the Gulf Coast 
through Monday. Will need to watch this scenario unfold carefully. 
If Fay moves far enough west...more rain will be expected in 
Arkansas. 


Temperatures will be warming through the weekend to near normal 
values. Maximum temperatures in the 80s and 90s are expected during the 
weekend. 


Long term...Monday night through Thursday 
medium range remains problematic this afternoon with tropical system 
Fay continuing to be the wildcard in all of this. Models if anything 
are actually in decent agreement concerning both this feature and 
the overall progressive pattern. That being said...will go with a 
blend of the GFS/European model (ecmwf) this afternoon. 


Period initiates with remnants of Fay crawling westward and located 
somewhere along the Alabama/Mississippi border. Large trough will be 
located just off the Pacific northwest coast with ridging over the 
Great Basin and rockies. In addition..a frontal boundary is expected 
to be stretched out along the Arkansas/Missouri border. All signs 
continue to point to Fay finally making its way off to the east or 
northeast early in the period. Aforementioned boundary remains 
across the north before washing out/moving out sometime late 
Tuesday. With remnants of Fay to the south and front to the north 
will keep slight chance probability of precipitation in the forecast early in the period. 


Weak high pressure will provide a dry Wednesday but the next system 
will be approaching for Thursday as the trough currently over the 
Pacific northwest makes its way into the nations middle section. 
Associated frontal boundary will move through the forecast area 
Thursday but models not in the best of agreement with this system 
and with an overall lack of deep moisture...only scattered probability of precipitation are 
justified. 


Temperatures will be close to normal for late August with highs in 
the upper 80s to lower 90s through the period. Overnight lows are 
expected to drop into the upper 60s to middle 70s. 
&& 


Lzk watches/warnings/advisories...none. 
&& 


$$ 




Aviation...58