005 
fxus65 ktwc 070405 
afdtwc 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Tucson Arizona 
905 PM MST Monday Oct 6 2008 


Synopsis...high pressure aloft will build over the area during this 
week for dry conditions and warming trend. A weather system may 
impact the region again this coming weekend with gusty winds and a 
slight cool down. 


&& 


Discussion...a clear sky prevailed this evening with Arizona on 
front side of eastern Pacific Ridge. Overnight low temperatures will 
be a few degrees warmer than what occurred this morning with high 
temperatures Tuesday 5-7 degrees warmer than today. Check previous 
discussion below for further details on the rest of the week. 


&& 


Aviation...clear skies with diurnal surface wind trends over the 
next 24 hours. Aviation discussion not updated for taf amendments. 


&& 


Previous discussion...expect a ridge of high pressure aloft to 
strengthen and prevail over the region for most of the week. This 
will lead to warmer high temperatures after the brief cool down this 
past weekend. Latest medium range models were still advertising a 
system impacting the region this coming weekend. The European model (ecmwf) showed a 
much deeper system than the recent GFS solutions...but both were 
suggesting that it will remain dry. The only complication to a dry 
scenario will be the possibility of some moisture from remnants of 
Hurricane Norbert. The latest NHC track has it reaching the southern 
tip of the Baja California peninsula by Saturday in which at least some middle 
level moisture might be pulled into far Southeast Arizona ahead of 
the low-level circulation. For now...this scenario did not look 
promising so will keep a dry forecast going for the end of this 
week. 


&& 


Twc watches/warnings/advisories...none. 


$$ 


Weather.Gov/Tucson