566 
fxus65 ktwc 191609 
afdtwc 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Tucson Arizona 
910 am MST Wednesday Nov 19 2008 


Synopsis...dry and warm under high pressure. The high pressure 
system is expected to weaken during the latter part of the week and 
into next weekend. This will lead to some increase in cloudiness and 
a slow cooling trend. 


&& 


Discussion...still low end breezy in spots this morning...but 
gradient relaxing into normal diurnal trends. Continued dry with 
surface dewpoints in the teens to lower 20s...and unseasonably warm 
under the ridge. Could flirt with record highs in a couple spots as 
afternoon temperatures run 12 to 15 degrees above climatology. 


Still looking for the ridge to break down into zonal flow with 
systems topping off the geometry through northern tier states late 
in the week. A few degrees of cooling...but still well above 
averages as actual height and thickness values will be slow to 
respond. No real chance at weather or significant pattern change 
until around the middle of next week when we could see a southern 
branch split as a chaotic pattern comes in off the Pacific. 
Presumably a cooling trend with an increase in cloud cover for the 
weekend and the first half of next week...but lots of uncertainties 
remain about timing and trajectory of any precipitation features. 


&& 


Aviation...mostly clear skies will prevail across Southeast Arizona today and 
tonight with any clouds of significance at or above 20k feet above ground level. 
Surface winds this morning Ely/southeasterly 5-15 kts with a few gusts to 
around 20 kts. Surface winds northerly/northwesterly 5-15 kts this afternoon and 
tonight. Aviation discussion not amended for taf amendments. 


&& 


Twc watches/warnings/advisories...none. 


$$ 


Weather.Gov/Tucson