652 
fxus66 keka 072153 
afdeka 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Eureka California 
300 PM PDT sun Sep 7 2008 


Synopsis...weakening upper level high pressure will bring more 
seasonable temperatures for interior locations across northwest 
California this week. The immediate coastal areas will see low 
clouds and fog in the late nights and early mornings. 


&& 


Short term...tonight through Tuesday night...heights will continue 
to lower as an upper level ridge over the region breaks down. Short 
range guidance is in good agreement that weak troughing will prevail 
over the Pacific northwest through the period. This will lead to slightly 
cooler temperatures across the interior zones this week. The trough 
will also work to deepen the marine layer with coastal fog/stratus 
producing cooler temperatures and mostly cloudy skies along the coast. British Columbia 


Long term...Thursday through Sunday...models continue to show a 
long wave ridge dominating over the eastern Pacific Thursday through sun 
of next week. Solutions show good agreement with a closed low 
developing over central and Southern California on Thursday...as a 500mb 
ridge folds over into the Pacific northwest. This will likely keep northwest 
California in a dry and stable weather pattern Thursday and Friday...with 
inland areas seeing seasonably warm temperatures and clear skies. 
Coastal sites should receive the usual dose of night and morning low 
clouds and fog. On Sat and sun...GFS/ensembles have a short-wave 
trough moving over the top of the ridge into the area from the northwest. 
This will likely bring a marine push and some cooling inland. Djb 


&& 


Aviation...contrary to model forecasts...stratus has stubbornly 
remained along most of the northwest California coast this 
afternoon. Breezy conditions along the Oregon coast where the 
gradient is tighter have helped to break up the stratus around 
kcec...and local eddies will provide brief MVFR-VFR conditions along 
the rest of the coast. Otherwise...3-5sm haze/br and LIFR ceilings to 
continue through the early evening with visibilities and ceilings dropping 
again later tonight. 


Patchy cumulus development over the yolla bollas and Trinity Alps 
this afternoon will remain fairly limited in size and areal extent 
and are expected to diminish with sunset. The slightly unstable 
airmass will mean smoke plumes from local fires will affect areas 
over the yolla bollas and del Norte County. Can expect local 
IFR-MVFR conditions around fires. Alm 


&& 


Marine...expect a brief weakening of the winds over the waters 
through Monday night as upper-level low moves over the West Coast. 
Have dropped the gales over the northern outer waters as this 
mornings scatterometer pass and laps analysis only show a few barbs 
over greater than 35 knots right along the northern border. Feel that 
any gale force gusts tonight will be localized and generally right 
along the northern edge of the waters. As the upper level low moves 
off to the east and the gradient restrengthens over the 
waters...expect north winds to ramp up again beginning early 
Tuesday. Have gone ahead with a gale and hazard seas watch for the 
outer waters Tuesday through Thursday as confidence in this scenario 
materializing once again is pretty confident. Alm 


&& 


Eka watches/warnings/advisories... 


Hazardous seas warning until 5 am PDT Monday for pzz470. 


Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 9 am PDT Monday 
for pzz455. 


Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 8 PM PDT Monday 
for pzz450. 


Small Craft Advisory for winds to 6 am PDT Tuesday for pzz470. 


Small Craft Advisory for winds and hazardous seas until 1 PM PDT 
Tuesday for pzz475. 


Gale and hazardous seas watch in effect from Tuesday morning 
through Wednesday afternoon for pzz470. 


Gale and hazardous seas watch in effect from Tuesday afternoon 
through Wednesday morning for pzz475. 


&& 


$$ 


Visit US at http://www.Weather.Gov/Eureka