801 
fxus66 klox 191653 
afdlox 


Southwest California area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard California 
900 am PST Wednesday Nov 19 2008 


Short term... 
much cooler morning today as ridge continues to March eastward and 
greater marine influence takes hold. Marine layer sitting around 800 
feet with stratus and fog hugging the immediate coast. The fog was 
dense and more widespread earlier this morning...but the stratus/fog 
has already begun to shrink down...and the dense fog advisories have 
been to allowed to expire. The stratus should clear to the waters 
and sunny skies should materialize everywhere within the next few 
hours. 


..from previous forecast... 


A little deep marine layer tonight should fill up all coasts. 


Thursday will be sunny after the coastal clouds burn off. A weak 
front moves through the area. This front will do nothing as far as 
clouds go but it will usher in another north wind event. The amount 
of cold air advection is much less than last week and this will make 
this wind event much less than last week. Sundowner winds will form 
which will ramp up the fire danger. A red flag watch is in effect as 
a result. The I-5 corridor will also see some north winds. This will 
dramatically reduce the low clouds. But flow in from the San Joaquin 
Valley will bring a great deal of low clouds to the north slopes as 
well as the interior of slow and sba counties. 


A little cooler sunny and breezy on Friday. The winds will still be 
northerly. This will not allow the coastal temperatures to warm as much as 
they would with a northeast event. The main focus of the day will 
remain southern sba County. 


Long term... 
the GFS and ec do now agree in principle on the weekend forecast. 
Both forecast fairly flat flow with a weak offshore flow which does 
transition from the north to the northeast thus ending the north 
wind threat to the South Coast of sba County. The NE winds for l.A. 
Vta County looks rather weak. At this time only a 15 to 25 miles per hour event 
which will scour out the marine layer and warm things up along the 
coasts and valley. 


A Little Ridge probability of precipitation up Monday but there is neutral flow so there 
will be no winds. The interior will warm some. 


Then it gets interesting. All the models are bringing energy into the 
area from Tuesday into the weekend. As one might suspect this far 
out there is little...no make that zero...run to run constancy in 
the long term forecasts. There likely will be rain at some points 
next week but any definitive timing or intensity forecast would have 
the accuracy of a blindfold and a dartboard. As such broad brushed a 
cooler cloudier forecast with a slight chance of rain. It will be 
interesting to watch as it develops. 


&& 


Aviation... 


19/1200z. 


Variable marine layer at 500 feet will produce IFR to LIFR ceilings and 
visible through middle morning up and down the coast. The marine layer is 
not solid and it is likely that the conditions will fluctuate 
greatly. The marine layer will be more solid tonight and will lift 
to IFR heights but will likely not make it into the valleys. 


Klax...conditions will fluctuate this morning with any combination 
of MVFR/IFR/LIFR ceilings or visible possible and likely different across 
different portions of the Airport complex. Good confidence in middle to 
late morning transition to VFR conds. Good confidence that IFR 
clouds will cover the Airport tonight but only so-so confidence in 
arrival time with a 40 percent chance of a 3 to 4 hour later arrival. 


Kbur...high confidence in VFR taf. 


&& 


Lox watches/warnings/advisories... 
Fire Weather Watch (see laxrfwlox). 
Gale watch (see laxmwwlox). 
Small Craft Advisory (see laxmwwlox). 
Marine weather statement (see laxmwslox). 


&& 


$$ 


Public...kittell/rorke 
aviation...Bruno 


Www.Weather.Gov/losangeles