664 
fxus66 klox 062026 
afdlox 


Southwest California area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard California 
126 PM PDT Sat Sep 6 2008 


Short term (today-tue)...a trough passing through the Pacific northwest tonight 
and sun will bring a few degrees of cooling to most areas Sunday 
afternoon. The trough will continue to dig along the coast and bring 
further cooling and marine layer deepening Sunday night and Monday and 
again Tuesday. Highs should bottom out Tuesday a few degrees below 
normal. Otherwise, very quiet pattern with no convection expected. 


Long term (wed-sat)...models in good agreement maintaining the trough 
along the West Coast through Sat. However, the GFS brings in a fair 
amount of middle and upper level moisture Thursday and Friday while the European model (ecmwf) 
is dry. For now i've kept a dry and partly cloudy forecast with 
daytime temperatures edging up a degree or two but still slightly 
below normal. 


&& 


Aviation...06/1800z 


Weak upper level ridge of high pressure centered over central 
California will shift east today...a weak trough will then move over 
the area. Light upper level east flow will become weak west and 
northwest through the period. Low level cloud tops were around 1kft 
this morning and will ascend a few hundred feet overnight. A weak 
onshore pressure gradient will exist in the afternoon...otherwise a 
thermal trough will persist near shore and variable low level flow 
will persist. 


Klax...it is very likely ceilings 008 will redevelop in the evening and 
there is a chance they will return around 05z. There is a chance br 
will resrict visibility to 5 miles in the later period. 


Kbur...virtually certain clear skies below 12kft will prevail. 


Virtually certain - 95-100% 
very likely - 80-95% 
likely - 60-80% 
chance - 30-60% 
not very likely - 20% or less 


&& 


Lox watches/warnings/advisories... 
none 


&& 


$$ 


Public...Wofford 
aviation...30 


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