032 
fxus66 klox 191213 
afdlox 


Southwest California area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard California 
400 am PST Wednesday Nov 19 2008 


Short term... 
marine layer under 500 feet and dense fog has pushed ashore over 
most of the coasts. The dense fog was most widespread over l.A. 
County and the central coast and these areas are under a dense fog 
advisory. Over the last hour the fog has thinned out some and the 
advisory may soon become unnecessary. Lower heights due to the ridge 
sliding eastward and better onshore flow along with a marine layer 
will make for cooler temperatures everywhere. 


A little deep marine layer tonight should fill up all coasts. 


Thursday will be sunny after the coastal clouds burn off. A weak 
front moves through the area. This front will do nothing as far as 
clouds go but it will usher in another north wind event. The amount 
of cold air advection is much less than last week and this will make 
this wind event much less than last week. Sundowner winds will form 
which will ramp up the fire danger. A red flag watch is in effect as 
a result. The 1-5 corridor will also see some north winds. This will 
dramatically reduce the low clouds. But flow in from the San Joaquin 
Valley will bring a great deal of low clouds to the north slopes as 
well as the interior of slow and sba counties. 


A little cooler sunny and breezy on Friday. The winds will still 
northerly. This will not allow the coastal temperatures to warm as much as 
they would with a northeast event. The main focus of the day will 
remain southern sba County. 


Long term... 
the GFS and ec do now agree in principle on the weekend forecast. 
Both forecast fairly flat flow with a weak offshore flow which does 
transition from the north to the northeast thus ending the north 
wind threat to the South Coast of sba County. The NE winds for l.A. 
Vta County looks rather weak. At this time only a 15 to 25 miles per hour event 
which will scour out the marine layer and warm things up along the 
coasts and valley. 


A Little Ridge probability of precipitation up Monday but there is neutral flow so there 
will be no winds. The interior will warm some. 


Then it gets interesting. All the models are bringing energy into the 
area from Tuesday into the weekend. As one might suspect this far 
out there is little...no make that zero...run to run constancy in 
the long term forecasts. There likely will be rain at some points 
next week but any definitive timing or intensity forecast would have 
the accuracy of a blindfold and a dartboard. As such broad brushed a 
cooler cloudier forecast with a slight chance of rain. It will be 
interesting to watch as it develops. 


&& 


Aviation... 


19/1200z. 


Variable marine layer at 500 feet will produce IFR to LIFR ceilings and 
visible through middle morning up and down the coast. The marine layer is 
not solid and it is likely that the conditions will fluctuate 
greatly. The marine layer will be more solid tonight and will lift 
to IFR heights but will likely not make it into the valleys. 


Klax...conditions will fluctuate this morning with any combination 
of MVFR/IFR/LIFR ceilings or visible possible and likely different across 
different portions of the Airport complex. Good confidence in middle to 
late morning transition to VFR conds. Good confidence that IFR 
clouds will cover the Airport tonight but only so-so confidence in 
arrival time with a 40 percent chance of a 3 to 4 hour later arrival. 


Kbur...high confidence in VFR taf. 


&& 


Lox watches/warnings/advisories... 
Fire Weather Watch (see laxrfwlox). 
Dense fog advisory (see laxnpwlox). 
Marine weather statement (see laxmwslox). 


&& 


$$ 


Public...rorke 
aviation...Bruno 


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