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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay area California 
404 am PST Monday Nov 23 2009 


Discussion...as of 4:00 am PST Monday...satellite imagery is indicate patchy 
fog...most prevalent in the Salinas valley this morning. However... 
latest satellite imagery is indicate that fog is beginning to form in other 
interior valleys of the district. Otherwise...skies are clear 
across the district. 


Temperatures this morning are in the 30s and 40s. In the hills... 
temperatures are in the 40s. This matches up well with the latest 
Fort Ord profiler which shows mild temperatures aloft. 


Upper ridge along the coast will continue to build through the 
middle of the week. This will bring a warming trend...along with an 
offshore flow for clear skies. In fact...temperatures could reach the 
70s in some spots Tuesday and Wednesday. There could be the 
possibility of fog advecting into the valleys in the offshore flow. 
Have continued to mention fog for tonight/Tuesday morning in the 
valleys. 


Medium range models continue to indicate that a trough will move into 
the Pacific northwest Thursday night/Friday. The 06z GFS is the strongest 
and most further south of the models. For now...have followed the 
European model (ecmwf) and have mentioned a slight chance of showers Thursday night 
into Friday for the North Bay. Will need to keep an eye on future 
model runs to see if the 06z is the beginning of a trend to a 
stronger trough. 


After the trough passes to the east late Friday a ridge will build 
along the coast. This will bring dry weather for the district through 
the weekend. Models begin to diverge later on in the extended 
period...with the GFS having more of a zonal flow onto the coast 
whereas the European model (ecmwf) is more amplified with the ridge along the coast. 


&& 


Aviation...as of 3:37 am PST Monday...mostly VFR conditions 
dominate this morning with the exception of ksns. Light north to 
northeast flow has helped to keep much of the coast cloud free. 


Vicinity of ksfo...VFR conditions today. 


Ksfo bridge approach...VFR conditions today. 


Monterey Bay terminals...LIFR conditions at ksns with visibility less than 
a mile. Expect this to continue through middle morning. Monterey 
remains VFR...but could see some patchy fog late. 


&& 




Mtr watches/warnings/advisories... 
... Craft for rough bar 




$$ 


Public forecast: dykema 
aviation/marine: mm 


National Weather Service on the web at weather.Gov/sanfrancisco