164 
fxus66 klox 200505 
afdlox 


Southwest California area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard California 
1000 PM PDT Tuesday Aug 19 2008 


Short term (tonight-fri)...marine layer near 1200 feet at lax this 
evening. Low clouds were over portions of the socal bight mainly 
along and off the san County coast extending to near Catalina 
Island. An eddy is expected to develop overnight which should push 
the low clouds back up the coast to the l.A. County coast overnight 
and probably to the vtu County coast late tonight. Along the central 
coast low clouds were moving inland and will affect the Santa Ynez 
Valley as well. Low clouds should also move up the Salinas River 
Valley in Monterey County and affect the Salinas valley in slow 
County by morning as well. Otherwise most of the district will have 
generally clear skies through tonight. Some gusty northerly canyon 
winds will be possible along the sba S coast and mountains overnight 
as well. 


Broad upper trough over California will flatten out through Wednesday...with upper 
ridging building into the region for Thursday through Friday. Winds at middle to 
upper levels will be west to northwest through Thursday then turn more 
southwesterly for Friday. No monsoonal moisture will move into the 
district through the period and dry weather is expected over the 
region. It looks like the marine layer pattern will persist with a 
weak eddy developing each night. Varying amounts of night and 
morning low clouds and fog can be expected through Friday along coastal 
areas and into some of the valleys. Temperatures are expected to be 
slightly below normal for the most part through Friday. 


..from previous discussion... 


Long term (sat-tue)...models still indicating a bit of a warming 
trend over the weekend into early next week. Nothing dramatic but 
enough to bring daytime highs at least to near normal levels if not 
slightly above. No surge of subtropical moisture is seen through 
early next week. 


&& 


Aviation...20/0450z...hi confidence IFR and LIFR ceilings will affect 
ksmx and ksbp overnight into Wednesday morning. Low to moderate confidence 
now that low clouds with IFR to low MVFR cats will affect the l.A. 
Coast overnight into Wednesday morning...and low confidence of low clouds 
affecting kbur and kvny later tonight. Low clouds may affect kprb 
late tonight into Wednesday morning...with a low confidence forecast. All 
the low clouds will clear off the coast by 18z to 19z Wednesday with VFR 
through the afternoon. Elsewhere VFR conditions are expected through Wednesday. 
Local gusty winds with perhaps local low level wind shear can be expected near ksba 
overnight as well. 


For klax...low to moderate confidence IFR to low MVFR ceilings will 
develop later tonight over the airfield. Any low clouds that develop 
will clear to VFR by 18z or 19z Wednesday. No wind issues are expected. 


Kbur...low confidence IFR ceilings will develop after 11z and clear to VFR 
by 16z. Seems more likely now VFR conditions will prevail during the 
period. No wind issues expected through Wednesday. 


&& 


Lox watches/warnings/advisories... 
Small Craft Advisory (see laxmwwlox). 


&& 


$$ 


Public...sirard/Wofford 
aviation...sirard 


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