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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Pueblo Colorado 
436 am MDT Sat Sep 6 2008 


Short term... 
(today and tonight) 


..cool start with morning low clouds in some areas...Otherwise 
sunny and warmer with seasonal temperatures by afternoon... 


Low stratus clouds have been shuffling around eastern Colorado 
this morning. Colorado Springs and Pueblo have been in and out 
of the clouds. Low cloud imagery shows most of the plains east of 
La Junta...most of northern El Paso County and parts of Fremont and 
Custer County still under the clouds at this time...whereas the rest 
of southern Colorado appears to be mostly cloud free. Made last 
minute adjustments to the forecast grids to reflect this trend. 


Any low clouds should dissipate fairly quickly this morning. The 
rest of day will be characterized by generally sunny skies and 
warming temperatures in all areas. Temperatures should climb to 
seasonal levels...with generally 70s to lower 80s across the plains 
and high valleys...and generally 50s and 60s in the mountains. 
Airmass looks pretty stable with just about none chance of precipitation 
today..so removed probability of precipitation from the forecast grids. 


For tonight...another weak little ripple will move through the flow 
clipping eastern Colorado. As the disturbance moves through...the 
models once again reinforce the upslope flow across the eastern 
plains. This will result in another round of low clouds...patchy 
fog and possibly some light showers or thunderstorms overnight. Not 
too confident in the precipitation prospects for eastern Colorado. 
Yesterday's models broke out precipitation across the plains for this 
morning and nothing has happened. All the action has been well east 
into Kansas. Pattern for tonight looks similar...so would suspect 
most action to be east of Colorado again. Will carry some low probability of precipitation 
out east to reflect the possibility but that's about it. Lw 


Long term... 
(sunday through friday) 


Sunday-Monday...moderate west to northwest flow continues aloft 
across the region as longwave trough across the northern rockies 
continues to lift out across the upper Midwest and upper Great 
Lakes. Models continue to indicate an embedded short wave moving 
out across the northern High Plains with its associated front moving 
across the eastern plains Sunday morning...with another stronger 
wave moving across western Wyoming through Sunday afternoon and 
continuing across the northern High Plains Sunday night sending 
another front across the plains Monday morning. Best lift associated 
with these waves remains north and east of the area...however both 
GFS and NAM are indicating some light quantitative precipitation forecast across the plains Sunday 
morning associated with 700 mb frontogenetical forcing. Soundings also 
indicating a saturated airmass to around 700 mb...especially along the 
I-25 corridor...and along with warm air advection have extended the current slight 
probability of precipitation to cover all the plains Sunday morning. Easterly upslope flow 
across the plains Sunday morning to become increasing south to 
southeast with lowering pressures across the plains and 700 mb 
baroclinic zone lifting back across northern Colorado ahead of 
second wave moving across the northern rockies Sunday afternoon 
before sliding back across the southeast plains late Sunday night 
and Monday morning as front backdoors across the plains once again 
with surface high pressure building across the Central High plains 
through the day Monday. With that said...have kept slight probability of precipitation 
across the eastern mts and plains Sunday night and Monday...though 
best chances should stay north and east of southeast Colorado. 
Have also stayed close to the warmer side of guidance for 
temperatures. 


Tuesday-Friday...no major changes to the forecast through this 
period with warmer and slightly wetter conditions...especially 
across the western half of the area...in the offing with increasing 
available moisture in west to southwest flow Tuesday and Wednesday 
ahead of next Pacific northwest trough moving into the Great Basin. Broad 
trough continues across The Rockies Wednesday night sending a wet 
front and across the eastern plains on Thursday with drier west to 
northwest flow in place on Friday. -Mw 


&& 


Aviation...areas of mvrf ceilings and visibilities from the sangre Delaware cristo 
range eastward this morning...with the most widespread MVFR 
conditions across the plains east of La Junta and also across 
northern El Paso County. Expect these conditions...and local IFR 
conditions to continue briefly after sunrise this morning and then 
dissipate. Could see another round of MVFR ceilings and visibilities develop 
over the plains tonight...accompanied by isolated showers or 
thunderstorms. Lw 




&& 


Pub watches/warnings/advisories... 
none. 
&& 


$$ 


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