599 
fxus65 kpub 282122 
afdpub 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Pueblo Colorado 
322 PM MDT Thursday Aug 28 2008 


Short term... 
(tonight and friday) 


Currently...weak and shallow upslope flow will continue through the 
rest of the afternoon. This will allow for increased dewpoints this 
evening and will perhaps cause some light patchy fog tomorrow 
morning. 


Tonight...a weak warm advection pattern will develop over the east 
tonight. Couple this with the remnant frontal boundary lurking near 
the nm border...and there might be enough lift to trigger some 
isolated thunderstorms and rain over the far southeast plains after 06z. In 
accordance with this...the probability of precipitation were increased to areas along the 
nm border...but won't spread precipitation as far north as NAM suggests. 
Late tonight will likely see at least a middle level cloud deck develop 
over the area due to the warm air advection...along with some patchy fog in the 
southern San Luis valley and in patches across parts of the eastern 
plains. There is a good chance for some lower stratus potential over 
the far southeast where moisture is deeper. 


Friday...as the ridge flattens...and several weak shortwaves move 
through the flow there should be a good chance for precipitation 
across the high country and enough to spill onto the eastern plains. 
The moisture will be over the plains due to the upslope flow that 
should occur this evening. With the advecting higher dew 
points...the cape values should be sufficient. Due to this 
development...have increased probability of precipitation along the Colorado and nm border...as 
well as along the Palmer Divide. The cell structure should be the 
marginal pulse type severe with hail and heavy rain as the main 
threat. 




Long term... 
(friday night through thursday) 


Meteorological challenges for the longer term continue to be 
probability of precipitation...temperatures and even some gusty gradient winds at times. 
Ongoing isolated to scattered probability of precipitation Friday evening expected to give 
way to none probability of precipitation after midnight. 


From the weekend into early next week...County warning forecast area should experience 
unsettled meteorological conditions as deeper moisture is drawn up 
over southern Colorado as upper high sets up over the eastern 
United States and a closed upper low pushes into northern Utah by 
00z Tuesday. 


At this time...computer models suggest that the most favorable 
pv/qg ascent/lift should be noted over the Pacific northwest Sunday 
and then from far northwestern Colorado into Idaho on Monday. 


At the surface...Lee-side troughing is expected to develop over 
eastern Colorado during the weekend with a closed surface low 
developing over northeast Colorado on Labor Day before shifting 
into the Midwest by later Tuesday. Also...a northerly surge 
expected to move across primarily eastern sections of the County warning forecast area 
Tuesday. Healthy gradient winds are anticipated...especially over 
eastern sections of the County warning forecast area from the weekend into early next 
week. 


Will continue to paint isolated to scattered probability of precipitation over the 
County warning forecast area from Saturday into next Tuesday. From Wednesday into next 
Thursday...zonal upper flow projected over southern Colorado with 
a weak northerly surge expected by next Thursday. Will paint 
isolated probability of precipitation by next Wednesday and Thursday. Maximum temperatures 
should run above climatological averages from Saturday into Tuesday 
with warmest temperatures anticipated this weekend. 


&& 


Aviation... 


VFR all areas today...with just a low threat of early evening thunderstorms and rain at kals 
as storms that form over the sangres drift westward. Will likely see 
broken-overcast VFR ceilings tonight as moisture begins to return 
northward...with potential for some isolated MVFR or IFR ceilings east 
of kcos and kpub by early Friday morning as a stratus deck and 
patchy fog develops over the plains. 


&& 


Pub watches/warnings/advisories... 
none. 
&& 


$$