057 
fxus61 kphi 200702 
afdphi 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Mount Holly New Jersey 
302 am EDT Wednesday Aug 20 2008 


Synopsis... 
high pressure will build over the region with good weather into a 
good part of the weekend. The next chance of precipitation will be 
Sunday as a cold front moves in from the northwest 


&& 


Near term /through tonight/... 
crisp airmass across the northern half of the County Warning Area as high pressure 
builds south bringing 40 dew point air. Winds are light from the 
northeast over the inland areas but gusting up to 20 miles per hour on the 
barrier island. Cool air advection at 80h over warmer nearshore 
waters with mixing down to surface. Nice day today and even cooler 
night tonight. Enjoy! 


&& 


Short term /Thursday through Friday/... 
high pressure will remain over the middle Atlantic region into Friday 
as the upper ridge sharply builds from the middle Atlantic into the 
Great Lakes. 500 heights will build to 594dm as temperatures slowly 
rise to near normal. After several days of dew points in the 40s 
and 50s, dew points will reach near 60 on Friday. If dew points 
are the big story, you know i'm struggling to find something to 
discuss. Anyway, comfortable conditions continue through this period. 
By the way, although cool in the Poconos, the record lows are in the 
30s for Aug 20. 


&& 


Long term /Friday night through Tuesday/... 
the high pressure system will move off the coast Friday night with 
a return flow developing. The high will continue to provide fair 
dry weather to our area well into the weekend. Temperatures will 
begin to climb on the backside of the high with readings getting 
back up to seasonable levels Friday through the weekend. The next 
chance for precipitation will occur as a cold front approaches late 
Sunday. The front will move slowly across our area late Sunday night 
and Monday and then move away Monday night and Tuesday. The best 
chance for measurable rainfall will be Sunday night and Monday, with 
lower probability of precipitation late Sunday and again Monday night into Tuesday. High 
pressure to our north will begin to push back in Tuesday and Tuesday 
night with a fresh batch of slightly cooler and drier air. The big 
question remains whether or not the moisture from Fay will ever 
get into our area. With a strong upper low blocking Fay from moving 
northward, it appears that it would be the middle to latter part of 
next week before we could feel her effects. But that is not etched 
in stone, so stay tuned. 


&& 


Climate/... 
National oceanic and atmospheric administration released the stats for global land/ocean surface temperatures 
for July. Combined, 2008 tied with 2001 and 2003 as the 5th warmest 
since 1880. Our land temperatures at the 8 local climate sites 
were on average about 1.9 degrees above normal. Acy the highest 
with 3.0 above. So far in August however, this is how our climate 
sites stand through Aug 18. 


Georgetown.....0.1 above normal 
Atlantic City..0.2 above 
Trenton........2.0 below 
Philadelphia...2.1 below 
Montana. Pocono.....2.2 below 
reading........2.4 below 
Wilmington.....2.7 below 
Allentown......2.9 below 


&& 


Aviation /06z Wednesday through Sunday/... 
with high pressure building over the region...mostly clear skies are 
expected for the remainder of the overnight hours, and during the 
day as well. A light north to northeast wind was being reported at 
the taf sites, and little change is expected through the day. Even 
though dewpoint temperatures are dropping into the 40s, some fog is 
still possible at ridge and perhaps miv, so have included a tempo 
group at both these sites around sunrise. Otherwise VFR conditions 
expected today and tonight. 


Outlook... 
high pressure will remain in control of the weather for much of this 
week, keeping the weather fairly benign. 


&& 


Marine... 
colder air moving over warmer water coincident with a pressure 
gradient being pushed over the water by an advancing high pressure 
system is producing wind gusts in the 20 to 24 knots range and bringing 
seas into the 4.0 to 4.5 range early this morning. Winds and seas 
will become calmer as the day wears on as the high continues to 
advance eastward and the pressure gradient gradually relaxes. 
With Small Craft Advisory conditions being approached, but not exceeded, have not 
raised any flags at this time. 


After high pressure builds into the region, it will remain in 
control of the weather through much of the week, so winds and waves 
are not expected to reach Small Craft Advisory criteria, at least 
through the weekend. Winds will gradually shift from north to 
northeast, then east and southeast as high pressure shifts 
to the east during the forecast period. 


&& 


Phi watches/warnings/advisories... 
PA...none. 
New Jersey...none. 
Delaware...none. 
Maryland...none. 
Marine...none. 


&& 


$$ 
Synopsis/near term/short term/climate...eberwine 
long term/...rpw 
aviation/marine...miketta