441 
fxus62 ktbw 072355 
afdtbw 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin Florida 
745 PM EDT sun Sep 7 2008 




Discussion...after another afternoon and evening of benign weather 
over the area expect a gradual increase in showers and thunderstorm 
activity beginning Monday afternoon and through Tuesday as low level 
moisture associated with the outer circulation of Ike arrives from 
the south. Probability of precipitation will be adjusted to 30 and 40 percent for scattered 
showers and thunderstorms from the Tampa Bay area and southward. 
There is also increasing potential for experiencing some strong to 
severe thunderstorms on Tuesday as the atmospheric vertical profile 
becomes more favorable for deep convection. Increasing helicities 
and thermodynamic parameters on Tuesday also suggest greater chances 
for isolated tornadoes. 


Stay tuned to your National oceanic and atmospheric administration weather radio and local media outlets Fr the 
latest weather information from your National Weather Service in 
Ruskin Florida. You can also obtain the latest bulletins regarding 
the progress of Ike in the National Hurricane Center website at 
www.NHC.NOAA.Gov. 


Previous synopsis... 


Synopsis...an upper ridge off the California coast is sharpening northward 
offshore British Columbia. Large scale troughing reaches from 
central Canada to the U.S. Plains and Midwest. Another upper ridge 
over the Atlantic...centered near 35 north/ 55 west...extends over 
Florida to the East Gulf. Hanna near New England is along the north end 
of a cold front which extends southwesterly across the southeast U.S. To 
the northwest Gulf coastal waters. High pressure over the Atlantic ridges 
westward to southeast Georgia and NE Florida with a weak high pressure center in the 
NE Gulf. Hurricane Ike is east of the eastern tip of Cuba. 


&& 


Aviation...VFR conditions are expected at all terminal sites the 
rest of tonight. On Monday mainly VFR conditions are expected 
however some brief periods of MVFR visibilities from isolated 
showers may impact Fort Myers and regional southwest terminals 
during the afternoon. East to northeast surface winds will increase 
into the 15-25 knot range across the southern most terminals and 
12-20 knots further north. 


&& 


Marine...winds will begin to veer later tonight and through Monday 
as Hurricane Ike brings deteriorating weather conditions over the 
southern and central waters from late Monday and through the middle 
of the week. Mariners should closely monitor the future track of 
Hurricane Ike and stay tuned to the latest forecasts from the 
National Hurricane Center and your National Weather Service office. 


&& 


Tbw watches/warnings/advisories... 
Florida...none. 
Gulf waters...none. 


&& 


$$ 


Discussion...Arkansas 
aviation...jcm