747 
fxus62 kmlb 231533 
afdmlb 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Melbourne Florida 
1030 am EST Monday Nov 23 2009 


Discussion... 


Current...widespread low clouds/mist across the half County Warning Area is in the process 
of gradually eroding at this time...though still quite a bit of high cldsw over 
the top...streaking east-northeastward in divgt area ascd with 80-100kt h20 jet. 
Cool front becoming a bit diffuse as it sags into the southern County Warning Area. Boundary is 
spearating temperatures in the u60s north to u70s/80f south. 


Rest of today...middle level trough/upper jtstrk will have lifted well to 
the NE...carrying alonf the weak coastal low. This will leave the 
southward push of the frontal boundary to grind to a halt across the southern County Warning Area 
as it becomes aligned parallel with middle level flow. Weak convg/highest 
mean moisture values look to be across the ctrl/southern cos...where the 
slightly higher probability of precipitation are currently advertised. 


Looking at the grids/txt...some minor tweaks are in order - will 
need to nudge maxes upward a couple degrees for the southern third County Warning Area as 
current temperatures are already approaching forecast maxes of around 80f. 
Will also massage winds to show a little faster shift to light northwest 
(and perhas a weak onshore (ecsb) component for the coast...espec 
the space/Treasure coasts where better heating/higher maxes occur. 
May also make some cosmetic changes to sky cover. 


&& 


Aviation...widespread IFR to LIFR ceilings have broken up and risen to higher 
end IFR/MVFR...mainly fl008-015 at this time...with pockets of LIFR confined 
to vicinity dab-evb. Expect ceilings to rise to widespread VFR/areas MVFR by 
17z-18z with isolated-low end scattered (20-30% chc) rain showers chances this afternoon... 
mco-ism southward through mlb-vrb. 


&& 


Marine...current seas ~2ft near shore and 4-5ft well away from the 
coast will continue to slowly subside today/tonight as ongoing NE/east-northeast 
swell wanes. Current forecast is right on top of current/forecast conds. 


&& 


Mlb watches/warnings/advisories... 
Florida...none. 
Am...none. 
&& 


$$ 


Short term/aviation...cristaldi 
long term....Moses