636 
fxus62 kkey 200648 
afdkey 


Area forecast discussion for the Florida Keys 
National Weather Service Key West Florida 
250 am EDT Wednesday Aug 20 2008 


Discussion... 
currently... 
kbyx detects scattered showers throughout the forecast area. Skies 
over the island chain are variably cloudy. Winds over land are 
southwest to west at 10 to 15 miles per hour. C-man winds...on average...are 
southwest to west near 15 knots...with gusts near 20 knots. 
Temperatures are in the lower 80s. Only about six degrees of warming 
is expected today due to gentle to moderate southwest surface winds 
over water with temperatures in the lower to middle 80s. 


Short term (today through friday)... 
Tropical Storm Fay will continue to impact North Florida today 
through at least Friday. The service area should remain along the 
far southern periphery of weak cyclonic low to middle level flow 
associated with Tropical Storm Fay today. As a result...probability of precipitation will be 
increased by 10 percent for today. An Atlantic ridge of high 
pressure will attempt to nose across the Florida Straits tonight 
through Friday. The Success of the Atlantic ridge of high pressure 
will depend greatly on the exact track of Tropical Storm Fay...which 
is highly uncertain. Be that as it may...precipitable water values 
should remain just below two inches tonight through Friday...which 
is near the 75th percentile for August. Lack of large scale lift 
should limit probability of precipitation to low chance category for tonight through 
Friday. 


Long term (friday night through tuesday)... 
an Atlantic ridge of high pressure will build across South Florida 
this weekend into early next week. At this time...it does not look 
like any tropical waves will affect the Florida Keys this weekend 
into early next week. As a result...the long term portion of the 
zone forecasts for the Florida Keys will be based on climatology. 


&& 


Marine... 
small craft should exercise caution on all Keys waters today due to 
sustained southwest to west surface winds of 15 to 20 knots. Small 
craft are urged to exercise caution on Gulf waters tonight and 
Thursday due to sustained southwest surface winds of 15 to 20 knots. 
No advisories or cautionary statements expected Thursday night 
through at least Sunday. 


&& 


Aviation... 
prevailing VFR conditions are expected at eyw...mth...overnight 
through midday Wednesday. Scattered showers will move from 240-280 
degrees at about 15 knots. A brief period of IFR or MVFR conditions 
associated with a passing shower is possible at eyw and mth through 
18z. Showers will both develop and dissipate quickly. Surface winds 
will be from 240-270 at 7-12 knots. 


&& 


Climate... 
on this date in Keys weather history...in 1963...the low temperature 
in Key West was 69 degrees. This set the daily record for minimum 
temperature measured in Key West on August 20th...a record which 
still stands 45 years later. 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Key West 89 80 89 80 / 40 30 30 30 
Marathon 90 79 90 80 / 40 30 30 30 


&& 


Key watches/warnings/advisories... 
Florida...none. 
GM...none. 


&& 


$$ 


Public/marine/fire/climate/digital...bs 
aviation/nowcasts....................bwc 
data acquisition.....................Wah 


Visit US on the web at www.Weather.Gov/keywest