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fxus64 kmob 191059 
afdmob 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Mobile Alabama 
459 am CST Wednesday Nov 19 2008 


Short term (today and tonight)...a large sprawling surface high 
pressure from the Ohio Valley to southeast Texas will settle over the 
southeast states by late tonight. A mostly cloud free and cool day on 
tap with less wind than yesterday as the surface high oozes across 
the lower south. Was tempted to lower the guidance lows for Thursday 
morning but with the surface high center likely to be just east of 
the area...may be enough of an onshore component to the wind to keep 
temperatures up tonight. Interior will see low to middle 30s...with 
another freeze in the typical colder spots. /11 


Short term (thursday through friday)...that surface high mentioned 
moving from the Ohio Valley region will have moved off the coast into 
Thursday then weaken as a deepening trough moves south from the Great 
Lakes to the Middle Atlantic States. Associated dry front will have 
passed the County Warning Area by late Thursday or early Friday...pouring cold dry 
air into the region through late Friday. /77 


Long term...(friday night through tuesday)...cool and dry Saturday. 
As surface high pushes off the East Coast by Sunday. Return to 
seasonal temperatures through Tuesday with increasing chance of rain. GFS 
indicating surface cyclogenesis over the Gulf south of here forming 
out of a front trailing out of a low over southwest Quebec. European model (ecmwf) 
indicates no such greater Mexico cyclogenesis...just a front moving through 
associated with a surface low which moves from the Great Lakes to 
offshore of Chesapeake Bay or Hampton Roads area. /77 


&& 


Aviation...for 19/12z...expect visual flight rules for the next 24 
hours. Will likely be a few patches of ground fog over the inland 
areas late tonight near bodies of water and low lying areas. /11 


&& 


Marine...winds have diminished below small craft advisories and 
should be less than cautionary requirements later today. Winds over 
the near shore waters and bays the next few days will be light as the 
surface high center drifts across the area. A brief spell of 
southwest winds tonight as the high moves away then the next front 
blast across the marine area Thursday evening and night. North to 
northwest winds likely back to small craft levels Thursday night and 
Friday. This system moving fairly quickly so expect the winds to 
become easterly by the weekend but remain around 15 to 20 knots. No 
rain in the five day marine forecast. Seas will build with the 
increasing wind but with the shorter fetch...wave heights generally 
no more than 6 feet well offshore. /11 


&& 


Fire weather...moderate northerly wind near surface through mixed 
layer will diminish as a high moves over the area. Another associated 
dry front will have passed the County Warning Area by late Thursday or early 
Friday...pouring cold dry air into the region through late Friday. 
/77 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Mobile 59 42 71 40 / 00 00 00 05 
Pensacola 57 43 71 42 / 00 00 00 05 
Destin 59 45 69 45 / 00 00 00 05 
Evergreen 59 34 67 33 / 00 00 00 05 
Waynesboro 60 30 66 34 / 00 00 05 05 
Camden 57 35 64 33 / 00 00 00 05 


&& 


Mob watches/warnings/advisories... 
Alabama...red flag warning from noon Wednesday to 5 PM Wednesday for the 
following zones: Butler...Choctaw...Clarke...Conecuh... 
Covington...Crenshaw...Escambia...Monroe...Washington...and 
Wilcox. 


Florida...red flag warning from 11 am Wednesday to 5 PM Wednesday for the 
following zones: coastal Escambia...coastal Okaloosa... 
coastal Santa Rosa...inland Escambia...inland Okaloosa... 
and inland Santa Rosa. 


MS...none. 
GM...none. 
&& 


$$