733 
fxus62 kmfl 160145 
afdmfl 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Miami Florida 
945 PM EDT Wednesday Oct 15 2008 


Update...batch of showers has moved through sections of central 
and southern Miami Dade County, with most showers currently 
offshore aiming more at the Keys rather than the Mainland. These 
showers contained wind gusts of 30 knots over Biscayne Bay and the 
near shore Atlantic waters. Latest evening satellite data shows 
little in the way of significant moisture areas upstream over 
Bahamas. Therefore, expect a mostly dry and rather breezy 
remainder of the night across all of South Florida. Only minor 
changes were made to zone forecasts, with 20 probability of precipitation central/South 
Miami Dade and 10 probability of precipitation remainder East Coast. 


Marine forecasts look good with a slow decreasing trend in 
conditions as we get near daybreak. /Molleda 


&& 


Previous discussion... /issued 729 PM EDT Wednesday Oct 15 2008/ 


Aviation...VFR conditions are expected through the period with 
only a very slim chance of a shower at any terminal along the East 
Coast. The easterly flow is expected to continue and become gusty 
once again during Thursday morning. /Tingler 


Previous discussion... /issued 633 PM EDT Wednesday Oct 15 2008/ 


Update...quick update to the zone forecasts to indicate greater 
coverage of showers this evening primarily over Miami Dade as 
batch of clouds/showers seen on radar/satellite data which moved 
through the Bahamas earlier this afternoon poised to move onshore 
the far southeast coast. /Molleda 


Previous discussion... /issued 225 PM EDT Wednesday Oct 15 2008/ 


Discussion...deep layer ridge will continue to dominate the S 
fla weather picture through the short term. Both the middle and low level 
ridge axis will be centered across the Georgia/Florida border tonight and 
then slowly slip south through Friday night. This will give our 
region deep easterly flow through Thursday and then only turn more 
northerly in the upper levels as the center of the upper portion 
of the ridge slides off to the west in the eastern gofmex. The 
drier air that is now in place across S fla is forecast to continue 
through the period with forecast soundings keeping precipitable waters  at just over 
one inch. There may be just enough low level moisture to keep one 
or two rain showers from time to time streaming in from the Atlantic along 
the east CST but not enough to mention in this forecast package. All 
models also indicate the strong subsidence cap will continue at 
around 8 to 10k feet so this another reason for keeping probability of precipitation at a 
bare minimum. 


In the extended, a strong short wave will move south out of Canada 
and carve out a large scale trough across the eastern part of the 
country this weekend and this will break down the ridge and allow a 
weak cold front to move into South Florida late Saturday. A lack of 
real push will only bring the front to our region and then pretty 
much stalls and becomes diffuse. The GFS does show an increase in 
low level moisture as the front approaches with precipitable water increasing to 
around 1.5 inches but keeps the strong subsidence cap at 10k feet so 
about the only affects for S fla may be an increase in low topped 
rain showers forming over the Atlantic and then move onshore of the southeast CST 
but mex still only has isolated probability of precipitation. So in all in all, looks like a 
fairly dry forecast for the next seven days. 


Aviation...VFR conditions will prevail over all terminals next 24 
hrs, although a shower or two may develop, no significant impact is 
expected. Surface winds should remain mostly NE/east in the 15 to 20 
kts range with higher gusts through 22z however will a slight 
decrease in speed is expected Thursday morning. 


Marine...marine conditions will remain rather rough especially on the 
Atlantic side. East-northeast wind will continue at 15 to 20 knots through 
Thursday which will keep Small Craft Advisory up for Atlantic waters through late 
Thursday and scec elsewhere. Wind and seas will begin to subside 
by Friday as the gradient relaxes continuing over the weekend. 


Fire weather...no problems or concerns. 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
West Palm Beach 75 86 74 85 / 10 - - - 
Fort Lauderdale 77 86 76 86 / 10 - - - 
Miami 76 85 75 86 / 10 - - - 
Naples 70 88 69 88 / - - - - 


&& 


Mfl watches/warnings/advisories... 
Florida...none. 
Am...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 8 PM EDT Thursday 
for amz650-amz651-amz670-amz671. 


GM...none. 
&& 


$$