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afdtbw 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin Florida 
345 am EST Monday Nov 23 2009 


Short term (monday - wednesday)...stationary boundary will persist 
across the central Florida Peninsula with mostly cloudy skies and a 
chance of showers. A short wave disturbance will ride over the 
boundary with a weak surface low developing along the front over the 
central Gulf of Mexico Tuesday with increasing shower and 
thunderstorm activity over the central Gulf...with cloudy skies and 
a chance of showers persisting over west central Florida through 
Tuesday night. Still quite a bit of uncertainty on Wednesday as u/l 
energy continues to ride over the frontal boundary enhancing 
precipitation across the eastern Gulf of Mexico...west central...and 
southwest Florida. Given this will continue chance of showers 
across the region with highest probability of precipitation central and south. Above normal 
temperatures will continue through midweek. 


&& 


Long term (wednesday night-sunday)...forecast remains on track for 
the long term period. The broad upper level trough over the eastern 
two-thirds of the country will sharpen and move off the East Coast 
over the weekend with rather zonal flow setting up for early next 
week. At the surface a cold front will sweep across the region 
during Thursday continuing the chance of showers ahead of and along 
it. Behind this front much cooler drier air will overspread the 
region as high pressure over the Southern Plains on Thursday moves 
east across the deep south over the weekend and off the southeast 
U.S. Coast early next week. Temperatures will be near normal on 
Thursday then fall several degrees below normal for Friday through 
Sunday. 


&& 


Aviation...some MVFR/local IFR ceilings and visibilities will 
continue this morning with VFR conditions returning by this 
afternoon. VFR conditions should then continue into early tonight 
before more low clouds and fog develop overnight causing some more 
MVFR/local IFR conditions. 


&& 


Marine...winds less than 15 knots with seas less than 4 feet 
through the period. 


&& 


Fire weather...no fire weather concerns. 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
tpa 79 66 80 67 / 50 20 30 30 
fmy 83 66 83 69 / 30 10 20 30 
gif 82 65 82 66 / 50 20 30 30 
srq 80 64 80 67 / 50 20 30 30 
bkv 79 58 79 60 / 30 10 30 30 
spg 78 67 79 69 / 50 20 30 30 


&& 


Tbw watches/warnings/advisories... 
Florida...none. 
Gulf waters...none. 
&& 


$$ 


Short term/marine/fire weather...13/eo 
long term/aviation...69/prc