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fxus62 ktbw 200705 
afdtbw 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin Florida 
305 am EDT Wednesday Aug 20 2008 


Short term (today - friday)...Flood Watch continues over the far 
east and southeast counties and will expire at 4 am. At this time Fay appears to 
over mlb with most of the rain along the east Florida coast. Although 
scattered bands are rotating southward over parts of the County Warning Area. 


With Fay expected to slide out over the Atlantic and then track 
back west some where over northern Florida will keep generally high 
cloud coverage and probability of precipitation in place. This will suppress high temperatures 
to below normal and allow the mins to run above. 


While the models are in agreement with Fay moving back west there 
are some issues in timing and location. The Cone of uncertainty 
reflects this by covering much of the north half of Florida. Residents 
and visitors in west central and southwest Florida should continue to 
monitor Fay. 


Long term (fri night-tue)...official NHC track of Fay to have 
center over North Florida Friday night slowly moving west-northwest into the Florida Panhandle 
Sat nt then S Alabama sun but with uncertainty error Cone extends into 
the north Gulf to the deep south. Deep tropical moisture to continue 
over the area with moderate to strong S-southeast flow into Fay expected to 
keep cloud cover and rain chances over most of the area with best 
chances over northern area closest to system through the weekend. 
Model forecasts continue to keep remnants of Fay somewhere in the region 
to start next week for more scattered convection as flow becomes 
swerly. Temperatures through the period around normal. 


&& 


Aviation...mainly vrf conditions at terminals as ts Fay...main 
cloud shield and rain bands continue to slowly move NE away from 
area. But still may see an occasional band break away and move 
across the terminals...so will continue to include a tempo or 
vicinity shower with MVFR ceilings this morning then thunderstorms in the vicinity this afternoon 
while some gusty winds persist through the day. 


&& 


Marine...still gusty offshore and over Tampa Bay but expect this to 
drop some and will let the Small Craft Advisory run out at 4 am and shift to scec 
until 10 am. Winds should then stay below any highlights until 
late Thursday or early Friday when Fay is expected to move back west some 
where over northern Florida and increase winds into the 20kt range. 


&& 


Fire weather...no low relative humidity concerns. 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
tpa 86 77 86 76 / 60 40 50 30 
fmy 87 76 86 76 / 60 40 50 30 
gif 88 75 86 75 / 70 60 60 30 
srq 86 77 85 77 / 60 40 50 30 
bkv 87 74 86 74 / 60 40 50 30 
spg 85 80 84 80 / 60 40 50 30 


&& 


Tbw watches/warnings/advisories... 
Florida...small craft exercise caution until 10 am EDT this morning for 
Charlotte-Citrus-Lee-Pinellas-Sarasota. 


Flood Watch until 4 am EDT early this morning for Highlands-Polk. 


Gulf waters...small craft exercise caution from 4 am until 10 am EDT 
this morning for Bonita Beach to Suwannee River out to 60 nm and 
Tampa Bay waters. 


Small Craft Advisory until 4 am EDT early this morning for 
Bonita Beach to Suwannee River out to 60 nm and Tampa Bay 
waters. 


&& 


$$ 


Short term/marine...rkr 
long term/aviation...Rd