876 
fxus62 kmlb 191504 
afdmlb 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Melbourne Florida 
1003 am EST Wednesday Nov 19 2008 


Discussion... 


..near record lows expected again tonight... 


Current-tonight...surface high pressure located north will continue 
to slowly settle southward toward central Florida through the day. 
Early morning cold temperatures will slowly recover to 60 degrees 
north into the upper 60s far south...still 10+ degrees below climatology. 
North/northeast winds 10-15 miles per hour will make it feel cooler...though 
speeds will be less than the previous day. For tonight...winds will 
become light this evening...skies will remain/become clear with 
temperatures falling into the middle/upper 30s north to the middle 40s 
along the Treasure Coast. Patchy frost will be possible 
late...especially in rural areas along the I-4 corridor northward. 


&& 


Aviation...VFR. Marine strato cumulus will be able to push onshore along 
the coast today but should remain sct035-40. 


&& 


Marine...today/tonight...the pressure gradient will gradually 
weaken into this afternoon. North/northeast winds 15-20 kts will 
diminish to 10-15 kts late in the day. Elevated seas will linger 
through tonight and be slower to subside. Small Craft Advisory for all waters and if 
all GOES well will cut back to Small Craft Advisory for seas for southern nearshore 
leg and all offshore legs...and keep cautionary statements going 
elsewhere for seas. 


&& 


Fire weather...(previous discussion)...dry airmass will continue to 
exist over the area. However northeasterly onshore flow will develop 
today in the low levels which will help increase moisture slightly 
over the area. This combined with cooler temperatures and slightly weaker 
winds over the area will ease fire weather concerns this afternoon 
except over the far northwest interior (including lake and interior Volusia 
counties) where relative humidity values will fall below critical levels for 4-5 
hours during the afternoon hours. Elsewhere over the interior could 
still see relative humidity values in the low to middle 30s for few hours but not long 
enough to meet duration criteria for red flag warning. Low level flow 
from the west-northwest and dry low level airmass on Thursday with warming surface temperatures 
should allow for long durations of low relative humidity at least across interior 
and northern sections where a Fire Weather Watch has been hoisted. 


&& 


Mlb watches/warnings/advisories... 
Florida...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday 
afternoon for coastal Volusia-inland Volusia-northern 
Brevard-Northern Lake-Okeechobee-Orange-Osceola-Seminole- 
Southern Lake. 


Red flag warning from 11 am this morning to 5 PM EST this 
afternoon for inland Volusia-Northern Lake-Southern Lake. 


Am...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for coastal 
waters from Flagler Beach to Volusia Brevard County line 
out 20 nm-coastal waters from Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter 
Inlet out 20 nm-coastal waters from Volusia Brevard County 
line to Sebastian Inlet out 20 nm-waters from Flagler Beach 
to Volusia Brevard County line 20 to 60 nm offshore-waters 
from Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20 to 60 nm offshore- 
waters from Volusia Brevard County line to Sebastian Inlet 
20 to 60 nm offshore. 


Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas from 4 PM this 
afternoon to 10 am EST Thursday for waters from Sebastian Inlet 
to Jupiter Inlet 20 to 60 nm offshore-waters from Volusia 
Brevard County line to Sebastian Inlet 20 to 60 nm offshore. 


Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas from 4 PM this 
afternoon to 7 am EST Thursday for coastal waters from 
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet out 20 nm-waters from Flagler 
Beach to Volusia Brevard County line 20 to 60 nm offshore. 


&& 


$$ 


Sedlock/Spratt