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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Mobile Alabama 
656 PM CDT sun Mar 21 2010 


Aviation (00z issuance)...ceilings at mob and bfm gradually lower 
to MVFR conditions near 2.5 kft by 06z. Will have a tempo group at 
pns from 00-04z for light rain with ceilings near 2.5 kft then 
prevailing MVFR ceilings by 04z. /29 


&& 


** previous discussion ** 


Short term [tonight through Tuesday night]...taking a look at the 
current situation over the Continental U.S. And surrounding areas...our current 
weather maker is a closed low currently over the miss Delta Region. 
This system has pushed an occluded front well east of the 
forecast area...wrapping north...then northwest to a surface low just north of 
Memphis. Looking at the radars from the west and northwest...some 
light rain showers are in evidence. Away from the local area...an 
upper level ridge stretched north over the West Coast...with another 
off the East Coast. 


For tonight into Monday...this system will pass north of the 
forecast area...though looking at the model soundings and upper level 
plots...the cold core of the system will brush the northern area of 
the forecast area late tonight into Monday morning....enough to add some 
flurries to northern-most parts of the forecast area. Guidance is pretty 
consistent in the wrap-around showers lasting into the morning 
hours...though feel that the coldest part of this system passage will 
be before sunrise...so have limited any frozen precipitation to the late 
night hours tonight. 


By the end of the morning...the showers look to be pretty much over. 
Guidance is keeping a tight gradient over the marine part of the 
forecast area...though with low level high pressure just west of the lower miss 
River Valley by Monday evening...am expecting winds to settle and 
skies to clear. The NAM is bringing in drier air than the GFS for 
Monday night into Tuesday...resulting in a larger diurnal temperature swing 
in the met MOS guidance. Really don't have a feeling of on being 
better than the other...so have blended the solutions for Monday 
night through Tuesday night. 


Long term [wednesday on]...by Wednesday morning...two upper systems are 
merging over the southwestern Continental U.S.. by Thursday morning...this upper 
system starts over the Southern Plains. The European model (ecmwf) is quicker in 
introducing rain back tot he forecast area...painting quantitative precipitation forecast over the forecast area Thursday. 
The GFS holds off until Thursday night. The European model (ecmwf) is painting the end 
of the rain being before Friday morning...with slower GFS by Friday 
night. Have tried to blend these two timings...but with this being at 
the end of the forecast...this might be a bit moot. 


For the period Wednesday into Thursday...dry...seasonable to a bit 
above temperatures. The medium range MOS is advertising temperatures a bit below 
seasonal with the rain...but after...seasonal or above temperatures for the 
weekend. 


&& 


Aviation...(18z issuance)expect some brief VFR conditions 
mainly over the southwest coastal areas and just a bit 
inland...otherwise generally MVFR with a brief patch of IFR in and 
near the band of showers and drizzle moving across the northeast 
this afternoon. MVFR ceilings will return to the entire area from 
early evening and continue overnight and into Monday. /11 


&& 


Marine...cold front has moved east of Destin with strong westerly 
winds in its wake. Most c-mans and the few buoys in the marine 
forecast area were reporting sustained winds above 20 knots with a 
few exceptions...dpia1 has been down a little but believe the site 
is somewhat on the Lee side of Fort Gaines when the wind is 
westerly. The winds will remain at small craft levels into Monday 
middle-day then begin to diminish as surface high builds in. A 
possibility that Small Craft Advisory that is due to expire at 
22/18z may need to be extended due to wave heights...as they will be 
slow to subside. May see some patches of light rain or drizzle over 
the marine area tonight and Monday morning that will lower 
visibility a bit...at times. Winds turn northwest Monday night and 
become generally less than 10 knots until late in the week. By late 
week the surface high will be east of the marine area and the winds 
will be southeast at 10 to 15 knots. /11 


&& 


Fire weather...an upper system will pass north of the area tonight 
into Monday bringing a bit more rain to the area into Monday. Drier 
air will move over the area Monday night into Tuesday as low level 
high pressure moves east of the Mississippi River. This light flow 
and dry boundary layer will last into Thursday...when an upper 
system approaches the area...switching the low level flow to onshore 
and increasing moisture levels beginning Thursday ahead of the next 
round of rain Thursday night into Friday. 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Mobile 34 56 42 72 47 / 20 05 00 00 00 
Pensacola 39 57 46 70 50 / 10 05 00 00 00 
Destin 42 58 48 67 52 / 10 10 00 00 00 
Evergreen 33 57 40 72 42 / 20 10 00 00 00 
Waynesboro 32 53 36 72 40 / 30 20 00 00 00 
Camden 32 54 39 71 43 / 30 20 00 00 00 
Crestview 34 60 40 74 40 / 20 10 00 00 00 


&& 


Mob watches/warnings/advisories... 
Alabama...none. 
Florida...none. 
MS...none. 
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM Monday for the following zones: 
coastal waters from Destin to Pensacola Florida out 20 nm... 
coastal waters from Pensacola Florida to Pascagoula MS out 20 
nm...Mobile Bay...waters from Destin to Pensacola Florida from 
20 to 60 nm...and waters from Pensacola Florida to Pascagoula MS 
from 20 to 60 nm. 


&& 


$$