924 
fxus62 ktbw 061740 
afdtbw 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin Florida 
140 PM EDT Sat Sep 6 2008 


Synopsis...upper ridge offshore the U.S. West Coast reached north 
to British Columbia waters. There was large scale troughing from the 
Canadian prairies south to the U.S. Plains. Another upper ridge over 
the Atlantic...near 35 north/ 60 west...extended to Florida and Cuba. 
Meanwhile at the surface...high pressure was over the Central Plains 
with a frontal boundary from the Great Lakes to the central Gulf 
Coast. Hanna was out ahead the front...moving northward across the 
Middle-Atlantic States. High pressure over the Atlantic ridges westward 
across South Florida. Hurricane Ike was over open waters..well east of 
Grand Turk island. 


&& 


Short term...a surface ridge axis will move northward across the 
County Warning Area through much of the period with clear to partly cloudy skies 
will no significant rainfall and warm temperatures. However by Monday 
the ridge axis will reach North Florida and approaching Hurricane Ike 
will provide an increase in clouds and wind along with a slight 
chance of precipitation...except a chance for the far south. 


Long term (monday night-saturday)...main weather feature of 
interest during the extended period continues to be the 
movement...track...and impacts associated with Hurricane Ike. 
Satellite imagery...weather observing equipment...and model forecast 
data indicate that high pressure building over the Atlantic will 
keep Ike on a west to southwest motion through at least Tuesday. Middle 
Range models begin to diverge after that time frame with several 
models attempting to turn Ike to the north into the eastern Gulf of 
Mexico. The National Hurricane Center positions Ike over northwest 
Cuba early Tuesday before moving it northwest into the Gulf. 
Tremendous amounts of uncertainty exist in this portion of the 
forecast track. Western and southwest Florida remain within The Cone 
of error during this period. It appears more likely that if Ike 
veers off the forecast track...it will err to the west. 


For now residents and visitors to west and southwest Florida should 
remain vigilant and watch the storm and associated advisory products 
from the National Hurricane Center closely. It appears fairly 
certain...even with the uncertainty associated with the track of 
Ike...that West Coast beaches will experience building surf and 
dangerous rip currents late Tuesday through at least Wednesday. In 
addition...if any banding occurs along the northern flank of 
Ike...periods of heavy precipitation may become possible late 
Tuesday into Wednesday. Currently...model data suggests only minor 
banding is expected...with the bands generally south of the area. 
This solution is supported by current imagery of Ike...and the idea 
that high pressure is expected to remain strong...and north of Ike 
as it passes south of Florida. 


For the latest information on Hurricane Ike go to 
www... for the latest expected local impacts go to 
www.Weather.Gov/tampabay. 


&& 


Aviation...dry air in place over Florida will lead to widespread 
VFR conditions this afternoon and overnight. The fair-weather 
cumulus forming today will burn off by late evening. 


&& 


Marine...a nice boating weekend will end as winds begin to increase 
Monday with the approach of Hurricane Ike. Conditions...especially 
across the south...will deteriorate through early-middle next week. The 
forecast is highly dependant upon the track of Ike...please 
monitor the latest forecasts from your National Weather Service and 
discussions from the National Hurricane Center for updates 
regarding the Ike. 


&& 


Fire weather...with min relative humidity values in the 40 percent range...or 
higher...for the next few days no humidity concerns. However 
increasing surface and transport winds will result in higher 
dispersion indices. 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
tpa 76 93 77 92 / 5 10 10 20 
fmy 74 93 75 93 / 5 10 10 30 
gif 74 95 75 93 / 5 10 10 20 
srq 74 92 75 92 / 5 10 10 20 
bkv 70 94 71 92 / 5 10 10 20 
spg 80 93 80 92 / 5 10 10 20 


&& 


Tbw watches/warnings/advisories... 
Florida...none. 
Gulf waters...none. 
&& 


$$ 


Short term/marine...rude 
long term/aviation...cantin 
upper air division...Rhea