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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service tiyan GU 
552 PM chst Sat Aug 30 2008 


Synopsis... 
a trough south of Guam is producing scattered showers south and 
southeast of the marianas...as shown on both satellite and radar. 
The surface ridge has moved north of Saipan...and easterly trades 
have returned to the region after a rather long absence. 


&& 


Discussion... 
the GFS and UKMET are in fair agreement on a trough now in eastern 
micronesia moving west and bringing an increase in showers by 
Monday night. Thus...have left the previous forecast untouched in 
that regard except to add isolated thunder. In the near term...GFS 
extends the influence of the trough south of Guam northward late 
Sunday into Monday...and satellite trends tend to support that. 
Have kept shower coverage at isolated through Monday...but have 
introduced mostly cloudy and isolated thunderstorms for Sun night 
and Monday. Have also extended mostly cloudy beyond Tuesday as the GFS 
shows continued troughing in the trades through at least Thursday. 


&& 


Eastern micronesia... 
surface convergence associated with a trough located near 165e then 
enhanced trade-wind convergence will bring scattered precipitation to 
Kosrae and Pohnpei over the next couple days. Majuro...on the other 
hand...will have generally favorable weather conditions through the 
middle of next week as drier air filters into the region. 


&& 


Western micronesia... 
Koror and Yap are still on track to receive the brunt of weather as 
a large system moves over the region tomorrow and Monday. GFS and 
NOGAPS...the more bullish models...generate a circulation sometime 
over the next 24 to 48 hours. Whereas the European model (ecmwf) keeps the system a 
trough. In any case...it only appears that periods of heavy rain 
will be the main inconvenience with this system. The aforementioned 
trough over eastern micronesia will likely pass north of the Chuuk 
state. As a result...Chuuk will experience fair weather through 
early next week. 


&& 


Gum watches/warnings/advisories... 
GU...none. 
Marianas waters...none. 
&& 


$$ 


Middlebrooke/Lee 

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