720 
fxus62 ktae 070722 
afdtae 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Tallahassee Florida 
330 am EDT Tuesday Oct 7 2008 


Synopsis...scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are lingering across 
western sections of the Florida Panhandle late this evening and early Tuesday 
morning...but as they continue to move west at 10 to 15 miles per hour...they 
should be west of the County Warning Area in a couple of hours. Otherwise...skies 
are partly to mostly cloudy across the region with east-southeast winds driven 
by the surface ridge to our NE. Over the coastal waters...winds and seas 
are gradually increasing...and may need to to headline with an scec 
in a few hours...but do not expect the gradient to tighten 
sufficiently for an Small Craft Advisory as it did last night. 


&& 


Short term...unsettled conditions will be the rule across the County Warning Area 
for the next couple of days...as increasingly moist and unstable southeast 
flow ahead of the next upper level shortwave will lead to increasing 
chances for showers and thunderstorms over the area today and 
Wednesday. Although only a weak surface reflection is expected to 
develop in association with this shortwave trough...a cutoff upper low 
is prognosticated to develop and dig southeast through the lower MS valley later 
tonight and Wednesday morning...which if this were later in the fall or 
early winter with greater thermodynamic contrasts...this could be a 
favorable position for a potential squall line to develop along the 
northern Gulf Coast. However...at this time...the threat for severe weather 
looks quite limited with fairly poor low-middle level lapse rates in 
the model forecast soundings...and the lack of a deepening and well 
defined surface low will not aid the situation. Nevertheless...if the 
timing works out such that the surface heating and instability are 
maximized...we could see some strong storms develop out ahead of the 
cold front...so the situation should still be monitored. 


&& 


Long term...(friday through tuesday)... 
global guidance starts out the extended early Friday in pretty good 
agreement on the strength and position of the closed upper low. 00z 
GFS and Canadian and 12z European model (ecmwf) showing this feature and associated 
lift exiting to our east by early Friday with rising heights and 
drier middle level air ridging up into the central Gulf Coast. 
Unfortunately the guidance does almost immediately begins to 
diverge. GFS and Canadian lift the upper low a bit further up the 
East Coast and stall the now weakening feature along the Carolina 
coast into Sunday. This scenario allows upper ridging to build 
overhead during the upcoming weekend. 12z European model (ecmwf) as a different 
philosophy stalling the upper low on Friday over southeast Georgia and then 
allowing for the weakening disturbance to begin a slow southwest 
drift back into the eastern Gulf of Mexico. This solution brings a 
return of middle/upper level moisture and perhaps higher chances for 
scattered showers. 00z Canadian is currently in better agreement with the 
GFS solution. While my forecast philosophy generally does not like 
to go against the European model (ecmwf)...with its solution being an outlier at this 
time and for continuity sake will lean the weekend forecast toward 
the GFS/Canadian which calls for lower probability of precipitation under surface and upper 
level ridging. Will be interested in seeing if the 00z European model (ecmwf) sticks 
to it forecast or trends toward the other global models. GFS finally 
begins to drift the remnants of the old system back to the south 
during the early part of next week...however by this point any 
dynamics/moisture are well to our east and will keep the probability of precipitation low 
through the end of the forecast period. 




&& 


Aviation...a rather unsettled and less confident period of aviation 
forecasting beginning today and lasting into Thursday as a upper 
level disturbance and surface cold front slowly approach the area. 
In the short-term looking at plenty of middle/high level cloud across 
the area. Earlier showers have pushed west of kpfn and kdhn and 
expecting a mostly dry period into the middle morning hours. Any 
breaks in the higher overcast will likely allow some lower stratus 
development during the late night hours and have gone with tempo 
MVFR ceilings at all terminals (centered around sunrise). Kvld may once 
again see a brief period with IFR ceilings. Scattered showers and 
thunderstorms are expected from late morning and through the 
afternoon/early evening hours. Greatest coverage and chances for 
this convection lies from ktlh to kpfn and kdhn. Have included 
prob30 groups further north and east from kaby and kvld where 
coverage should be more limited. Disturbance to our west will then 
approach late Tuesday night through early Thursday giving all 
terminals a good chance at off and on showers/storms and extended 
periods of MVFR ceilings. 


&& 


Marine...expect a period of cautionary conditions to develop across 
the coastal waters tonight...and may see winds and seas remain 
elevated to levels just below scec levels until the cold frontal 
passage. Anticipate lighter winds and seas for the end of the week. 


&& 


Fire weather...no concerns are expected over the next few days. 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Tallahassee 82 70 79 65 82 / 50 50 70 60 30 
Panama City 82 72 81 64 82 / 60 70 70 40 20 
Dothan 78 67 79 61 82 / 60 70 70 40 20 
Albany 79 67 78 62 83 / 40 60 70 60 30 
Valdosta 82 67 78 66 83 / 30 40 70 70 40 
Cross City 84 70 81 67 85 / 50 40 70 70 40 


&& 


Tae watches/warnings/advisories... 
Alabama...none. 
Georgia...none. 
Florida...none. 
GM...none. 


&& 


$$ 


Aviation/fire weather/long term...mroczka 
public/marine...Gould