642 
fxus62 kcae 191726 
afdcae 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Columbia SC 
1226 PM EST Wednesday Nov 19 2008 


Synopsis... 
cold dry high pressure will remain over the region today. A dry 
cold front will come through late Thursday afternoon/evening. 
Expect dry and cold high pressure to build back into the region 
Friday and Saturday...and remain in place through Sunday night. 


&& 


Near term /until 6 PM this evening/... 
middle/upper level northwest flow will continue across the area this 
afternoon. At the surface...high pressure will move across the 
area through the day. Although 800 mb temperatures warm slowly through the 
day...advection remains nearly neutral. Time sections show plenty 
of dry air. Guidance and local numbers very close today and will 
stay near consensus. 


&& 


Short term /6 PM this evening through Thursday night/... 
middle/upper level northwest flow will continue across the area through the 
period. Another cold front will approach from the northwest late Thursday 
afternoon and evening hours. The dry cold front will move across the 
area Thursday night. Time sections remain rather dry through the 
period. Models indicate that nocturnal low level jet will develop 
over the area tonight/Thursday night from 25 to 30 kts. This will help 
keep temperatures up slightly. Guidance and local numbers very 
close through the period and will stay near consensus. 


&& 


Long term /Friday through Tuesday/... 
dry and cool conditions to continue...with upper trough over the 
eastern Continental U.S.. the next dry high pressure center to build into our 
region Friday and Saturday then linger into sun. Models appear to 
becoming in better agreement with next system approaching from the 
west/northwest on Monday/Monday night. GFS/European model (ecmwf) bring short wave across Saturday 
night...but with low levels expected to remain dry...will not 
expect precipitation although some middle/high clouds possible. Both European model (ecmwf) 
and GFS bring a front through Monday nt/Tuesday time frame. Will add 
mention small pop for Monday night with front. Temperatures expected 
to remain below normal through the period. 


&& 


Aviation /18z Wednesday through Monday/... 
expect VFR conditions through the taf period. The dry air mass and 
mixing should prevent late night fog. 


No significant impacts expected during the extended period. 


&& 


Cae watches/warnings/advisories... 
SC...none. 
Georgia...none. 


&& 


$$