729 
fxus62 kjax 061832 
afdjax 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Jacksonville Florida 
232 PM EDT Sat Sep 6 2008 


Synopsis...ts Hanna continues to move NE along the middle-Atlantic 
coast. Broad upper trough covers most of the Continental US. Fairly 
dry air aloft evident on water vapor Sat pictures with ribbon of moisture 
from Hanna stretching to the Florida Panhandle. Visible Sat pictures depict 
cumulus field over central Florida with a better developed cumulus field over the 
Florida Panhandle and Big Bend area. Cumulus is also developing over our northwest 
zones ahead of a lingering low-level trough. Also appears to be some 
moisture pooling ahead of this trough. Quasi-stationary front 
extends from the east Ohio Valley to the west Florida Panhandle. With 
subsidence across most of the area...limited cloud cover and SW 
winds...temperatures have soared into the lower 90s across portions of 
the area. 


Short term...although subsidence remains over most of our County 
Warning Area and points NE...still believe there may be enough 
moisture and instability for an isolated shower or storm over our northwest 
zones into early evening. Otherwise...should be a quiet evening 
across the area. Have included some fog over interior north central Florida 
zones overnight. 


Models in general agreement that weak front will shift southeast into the 
area on sun. This feature...in combination with leftover moisture 
ribbon and increasing instability...should lead to isolated to 
scattered showers and thunderstorms. Have capped probability of precipitation at 30 percent for 
now to mesh with surrounding offices and MOS probability of precipitation. 


East flow will bring the threat of isolated coastal showers almost any 
time of day by Sun night or Monday...with diurnal thunderstorms over inland 
areas. 


Long term...package is highly dependent on future track of Ike. 
Have made few changes to the forecast other than minor temperature 
tweaks. 


&& 


Aviation...prevailing VFR. 


&& 


Marine...no headlines for the short term. Main concern will 
be increasing swells from Ike beginning Sunday and into next week. 
Will probably have advisory criteria for seas offshore by Monday 
along with increasing surf and an elevated risk of rip 
currents. 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
amg 70 95 71 91 / 10 20 10 20 
ssi 75 90 76 86 / 10 20 10 20 
jax 71 93 73 89 / 10 20 10 20 
sgj 74 90 76 87 / 10 20 10 30 
gnv 70 93 72 90 / 10 20 10 20 
ocf 69 94 73 90 / 10 20 10 30 


&& 


Jax watches/warnings/advisories... 
Florida...none. 
Georgia...none. 
Am...none. 


&& 


$$ 


Carroll/Peterson/Kerns