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Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Peachtree City Georgia 
950 PM EDT Tuesday Aug 19 2008 


Updated... 
afternoon and evening showers appear to have died off. Will take 
probability of precipitation out of the forecast for the rest of the night. Adjusted sky 
conditions slightly based on recent trends...mainly to reduce cloud 
cover in some areas. 


&& 


(Previous discussion...) 


Short term /tonight through Thursday night/... 
current satellite loop shows some cumulus developing across the state. 
Slightly drier air is beginning to make its way into the state as 
high pressure ridge centered over the Great Lakes region builds 
southeastward. This ridge is expected to move into the New England 
and Middle Atlantic States through Wednesday/Thursday and help steer ts Fay. There 
is also a weak surface boundary over south Georgia which has become 
stationary. This boundary should stay stationary over the next 24 to 
48 hours as it becomes squeezed between ts Fay and the building 
ridge from the north. There is still quite a bit of moisture across 
south and central Georgia so any diurnally driven storms that develop 
today or Wednesday should be near this boundary. There is still a great deal 
of uncertainty with Fays track but the models are beginning to come 
together. Fays current forecast track shows Fay moving northeastward 
across the Florida Peninsula going out into the Atlantic just south of 
Daytona Beach by 06z-12z Wednesday. It stays off shore but then starts 
turning back west and then making landfall again near jax Thursday 
morning. It then continues westward along the Georgia/Florida border through 
the weekend. Looks like the main reason Fay will begin moving 
westward Thursday is because the high pressure ridge begins to build down 
the eastern Seaboard Wednesday and setup up into a wedge like pattern 
putting the east cost into great easterly flow. This will really 
help Fays westerly progression. Temperatures across the area should 
stay near seasonal norms in the short term. 


Long term /Friday through Tuesday/... 
after day 3 things become very uncertain. As mentioned above the 
ridge begins building down the East Coast and set up a wedge like 
pattern forcing Fay to track westward. A few of the models show Fay 
moving along the Gulf Coast through the weekend and then returning 
northeastward Monday making landfall around Panama City Florida Tuesday morning. 
It then moves slowly northeastward through Georgia and into the 
Carolinas Wednesday morning. Other models show Fay moving westward but it 
continue moving west over to MS/la by the middle of next week. 
Another models takes it westward and moves it north across Alabama and 
washes it out by next Wednesday. All in all I will have to deffer to the 
official hurricane center forecast which centers it over Coffee Colorado 
Alabama by 12z sun. 
&& 


Aviation... 
again...isolated showers/thunderstorms confined mainly to the mountains 
and the extreme southeast part of the County Warning Area this 
afternoon. Current thoughts will not need to mention precipitation at any 
taf sites this evening. Otherwise look for varying amounts of mainly 
middle/high clouds through the evening. However with low level easterly 
flow... patchy low clouds (1 to 2 thousand ft) possible late tonight 
/early Wednesday with best chance of this happening over mcn and 
ahn. Visibilities generally unrestricted through the evening...but lowering 
into the MVFR range in fog/haze most places after midnight...with 
patchy LIFR/IFR visibilities possible at mcn 09z to 13z. Expect these low 
ceilings/visibilities to persist through about 14z then cloud bases climbing to 
around 4000 feet and visibility 6 miles or better by late morning. Best 
chance for thunderstorm development over central sections Wednesday 
afternoon. But can not completely rule out a shower/tstorm across 
the north...especially in the mountains. However as far as tafs 
go...will limit thunderstorms in the vicinity mention to csg and mcn at this time. Easterly 
winds continuing...diminishing to 5 kts or less by midnight...then 
10 to 15 kts Wednesday. 


49 
&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Athens 66 90 67 88 69 / 10 10 10 20 20 
Atlanta 68 89 69 88 70 / 10 10 10 20 10 
Blairsville 61 88 64 84 64 / 10 10 10 20 10 
Cartersville 65 91 64 89 67 / 10 10 10 20 10 
Columbus 71 92 72 89 73 / 10 20 20 20 10 
Gainesville 67 90 69 86 68 / 10 10 10 20 10 
Macon 69 92 69 89 72 / 10 20 30 20 20 
Rome 65 92 67 90 67 / 10 10 10 20 10 
Peachtree City 62 90 63 89 67 / 10 10 10 20 10 
Vidalia 70 91 70 88 74 / 30 50 50 40 40 


&& 


Ffc watches/warnings/advisories... 
none. 
&& 


$$ 


01/15