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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Peachtree City Georgia 
615 PM EDT Thursday Aug 28 2008 


Short term /tonight through Saturday night/... 
what remains of Fay this afternoon is a weak upper level low over 
West Virginia...while the bulk of its moisture has finally pulled 
out of Georgia. Enhanced cumulus field over the northeast mountains 
suggests that there is still enough moisture up there to squeeze 
out a shower or two...however drier air aloft should hold down 
convection today...will have a dry forecast for the entire area 
after 00z this evening. Looking at temperatures tonight...seeing 
dry air already working into north Georgia...as evidenced by the 
middle 60 dewpoints there this afternoon. This...along with the cooler 
temperatures last night has led to a favoring of the cooler mav 
for overnight lows...except out east...where GFS is keeping enough 
moisture around overnight to warrant the threat of some scattered 
low clouds and slightly warmer temperatures. 


All models show the sub tropical ridge trying to reassert itself 
over the area Friday and Saturday...which should allow 
temperatures to warm back up into the 90s for most areas. The only 
other threat of rain will mainly be on Saturday...as a shallow and 
weak cold front pushes into north Georgia. However...with the ridge 
and warm temperatures aloft...it looks like thunderstorm activity 
should be rather limited during mainly the afternoon and early 
evening. 


Long term /Sunday through Thursday/... 
the long term forecast continues to hinge on the track that 
Gustav takes into the Gulf Coast region. Current NHC and ensemble 
track guidance takes Gustav to the Louisiana coast by Tuesday 
morning...and agreement amongst the models with this track is 
pretty good. However...after that more discrepancies start showing 
up as next week both the European model (ecmwf) and GFS build a very strong ridge 
over the eastern Continental U.S.. if this scenario plays out...the ridge 
would help push Gustav well off to our west keeping Georgia mainly 
hot and dry. Of course...if this ridging is not as strong as the 
extended models are trending toward...then Gustav could pose a threat 
to the area. With that said...at this point it is way to early to 
buy off on any one solution...so have lowered probability of precipitation and wording 
some in the extended to reflect the possibility of Gustav not 
being much of a factor in Georgia. 


&& 


Aviation... 
cumulus dissipating rapidly and most areas should go clear by 00z. Winds 
will go near calm shortly after sunset. There remains the 
possibility of some light fog at the usual places...ahn/mcn/fty. 
Both GFS/NAM indicate winds will become northeast after sunrise 
Friday. Will follow guidance and keep winds at 10kts or less all 
areas. After some heating in the morning we should see a cumulus field 
develop as the low level moisture remains in place...although base 
of the cumulus should be above 3000 feet at the onset and then rise to near 
5000 feet by 18z. 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Athens 66 92 67 92 68 / 5 10 10 10 10 
Atlanta 67 88 70 88 72 / 0 5 10 10 10 
Blairsville 64 87 66 83 66 / 10 10 10 20 20 
Cartersville 62 90 64 90 67 / 5 5 10 20 10 
Columbus 68 93 70 91 72 / 0 5 5 5 10 
Gainesville 65 87 69 88 69 / 10 10 10 20 10 
Macon 67 92 69 92 70 / 0 5 10 10 10 
Rome 63 92 66 92 69 / 5 5 10 20 10 
Peachtree City 63 90 66 89 67 / 0 5 5 5 10 
Vidalia 70 93 69 91 69 / 10 20 10 20 10 


&& 


Ffc watches/warnings/advisories... 
none. 
&& 


$$ 


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