731 
fxus62 kjax 070107 
afdjax 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Jacksonville Florida 
905 PM EDT Monday Oct 6 2008 


Update...shower activity continues over southern zones of area and 
marine zones south of St. Augustine due to low level directional and 
speed convergence. Showers have decreased in coverage over land the 
past few hours with loss of heating. Expect lingering small probability of precipitation 
overnight mainly south where best moisture/instability exists...also 
along East Coast where low level moisture convergence will remain 
strong overnight. 


&& 


Aviation...flight conditions are VFR at this time and expect this 
to continue until at least late tonight. Cooling in the boundary 
layer and continuation of moist Ely low level flow will provide a 
chance of MVFR ceilings and possibly brief MVFR visible toward sunrise. It 
was noted that MVFR ceilings occurred briefly a few times this morning. 
Better decoupling around kgnv may enable IFR ceilings and MVFR visible to 
develop. Gfe tools Show Low level wind shear over inland areas but does not appear 
to be strong enough to include for kgnv. Additionally...vcsh will 
possible at coastal taf sites toward sunrise as low level 
convergence intensifies. Rich low level moisture will maintain a 
good chance of ceilings at or below 3 kft through at least noon time but less 
moisture northward toward ssi should keep them in prevailing VFR. Tuesday 
afternoon...daytime heating and sufficient moisture supports at a 
minimum vcsh/thunderstorms in the vicinity in the tafs at this time. 


&& 


Marine...observations show winds and seas staying in the scec 
range...@15-20 knots and seas 4-6 feet. Latest model guidance still 
showing this condition to continue overnight and thus will maintain 
the scec and continue to advertise the Small Craft Advisory for Tuesday. Will continue to 
monitor trends closely. 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
amg 63 84 65 81 / 0 20 20 50 
ssi 70 80 71 78 / 10 10 20 40 
jax 69 82 69 82 / 20 20 20 50 
sgj 73 82 72 82 / 30 20 20 50 
gnv 69 84 69 83 / 30 30 30 60 
ocf 70 85 70 85 / 30 40 20 60 


&& 


Jax watches/warnings/advisories... 
Florida...none. 
Georgia...none. 
Am...Small Craft Advisory from 8 am Tuesday to midnight EDT Tuesday 
night for Altamaha Sound Georgia to Fernandina Beach Florida 20 nm to 
60 nm offshore-Fernandina Beach to St Augustine Florida 20 nm to 
60 nm offshore-St Augustine to Flagler Beach Florida 20 nm to 60 
nm offshore. 


&& 


$$ 


Zibura/shashy/Keegan