628 
fxhw60 phfo 080130 
afdhfo 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Honolulu HI 
400 PM HST sun Sep 7 2008 


Synopsis... 
light to moderate trade winds will diminish from Monday Onward. The 
stable atmosphere over the islands will limit windward rainfall... 
but Lee areas may experience increased clouds and a few showers. 


&& 


Discussion... 
satellite and nexrad show nothing out of the Ordinary out there. 
Instead...one sees the usual scattered to broken clouds and showers 
moving along in the trade winds or collecting over windward and 
Mauka sections. Judging by the random distribution of clouds upwind 
of the state...the islands will have an even shot at getting some 
showers. 


The subtropical ridge to our north will maintain light to moderate 
trade winds through Monday. A frontal trough presently straddling 
the dateline near 37n will move to the southeast displacing the 
ridge southward and eroding its western end. By Tuesday...the 
pressure gradient south of the weakened ridge will only support 
light trades. The trades will be at their lightest on Wednesday... 
then increase slightly as the trough weakens and the ridge builds 
slowly back to the west. 


The big question is whether sea breezes will set up...or whether the 
trade winds will remain strong enough to hold off the sea breezes. 
The forecast for Wednesday...when the trade winds will be at their 
lightest...has been changed to allow for afternoon sea breezes. Am 
thinking that the trades...though still around...will be just strong 
enough to push the sea breeze clouds showers from interior sections 
to leeward sections. What ever happens...rainfall amounts should be 
insignificant. 


&& 


Marine... 
the south swell presently Blessing our south facing shores will be 
reinforced by a south southeast swell...the two combining to keep 
surf at advisory level through Tuesday. 


&& 


Hfo watches/warnings/advisories... 
high surf advisory until 6 PM HST Tuesday for south facing shores. 


&& 


$$ 


Craig