565 
fxus63 kdmx 301155 aaa 
afddmx 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Des Moines Iowa 
344 am CDT Sat Aug 30 2008 


Discussion... 
hi pressure over the area will be the dominant weather maker for the next few 
days. Winds will gradually increase as the high slips off to the east 
slowly...but will not see too much before Monday. Main forecast probability in this 
package is with the eventual track of "gustav". Models in gud agmt at 
least as far as landfall and intensity will likely be at least as high 
as currently advisories suggest. That will mostly likely keep the upper ridge in 
place over the central and eastern Continental U.S. To the north of the hrcn. GFS forecasts 
a sudden weakening and then shifts it off to the west...which does 
not seem reasonable. As a result of this...models is pushing next 
cold front eastward too quickly. European model (ecmwf) and also the 00z Gem pkg brings 
remnants northward into Illinois and paint a decent swath of precipitation into the area 
in the Wednesday night/Thursday timeframe. Feel this is likely overdone...but 
the over all idea may not be that bad as feel the strong trough in the 
west...and enhanced southerly flow around the periphery of the sub-tropical 
hi will lift some of the moisture northward...at least as far as the southeastern half 
of Iowa. No big chngs to going forecast as this is reflected...however 
probability of precipitation may well have to be increased for middle week. 


&& 


Aviation...30/12z 
high pressure continues across the region for the next 
package...some increase in wind expected northwest later today and across 
the region after 12z sun. VFR ceilings expected. /Rev 


&& 


Dmx watches/warnings/advisories...none. 


$$ 


Long term...MS Aug 08 
short term...rev 
aviation...rev