306 
fxus65 kpih 200139 
afdpih 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Pocatello Idaho 
740 PM MDT Tuesday Aug 19 2008 


Discussion...mid-level clouds moving over the forecast area this 
evening have reduced the overall mixing and wind speeds throughout 
the Snake River Plain and hence the lake Wind Advisory has been 
cancelled. Convective potential has also weakened and this well 
supported by latest ruc13 run which has now backed away from 
convection 00-03z this evening across the southern Highlands. Updates to 
products coming soon. See previous discussion below. Huston 


Convection is developing over the northern half of the central 
mountains this afternoon. This is in response to a broad upper 
level trough that is advancing into the region. NAM shows most of 
the convection staying in this area this afternoon and 
evening...but also hints at an isolated storm or two developing 
over the snake plain and southern Highlands...drifting eastward 
throughout the evening. 


Thunderstorms chances hang around Wednesday and Thursday as the 
upper trough moves through the area. The better dynamics will be 
north of the region consequently expect the better rain chances 
to be north of th area. This trough will be bringing in cooler 
temperatures as well. 


Dry weather and gradually warming temperatures are expected for 
the weekend and beyond as a ridge of high pressure reestablishes 
itself. Valle 
&& 


Aviation...VFR conditions will continue through Wednesday. Middle to 
high level clouds will continue to increase through the next 24 
hours. Isolated thunderstorms are possible in the central mountains 
this evening and again Wednesday afternoon. Hanko 
&& 


Fire weather...the main area of thunderstorm activity has moved 
northeast into Montana. No lighting has been observed in southeast 
Idaho for the last hour...therefore the red flag warning for the 
Salmon-Challis National Forest area will be cancelled. Widely 
scattered thunderstorms are expected to redevelop on Wednesday for 
the far northern extent of the central mountains...mainly north of 
Stanley. A cold front passage on Thursday will bring strong winds to 
much of the area...along with cooler temperatures. Hanko/survick 
&& 


Pih watches/warnings/advisories...none. 
&& 


$$