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afdlsx 


Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service St Louis MO 
629 PM CDT Wednesday Oct 15 2008 


Update... 
/627 PM CDT Wednesday Oct 15 2008/ 


Quick update to the forecast to account for faster movement of 
precipitation ahead of the front and clearing line quickly moving 
in from the northwest. Given current satellite trends...clearing 
line should be through St. Louis metropolitan around midnight. 


Cvking 


&& 


Discussion... 
/257 PM CDT Wednesday Oct 15 2008/ 
cold front continues to push through the region this afternoon with 
most of precipitation Post frontal...though do have some activity 
firing just ahead of boundary in warmer...more moist and unstable 
airmass. Main forecast issue in the short term is this activity and 
when will it come to an end. 


For this evening...showers to push to the south and east with front 
exiting County Warning Area by about 02z. Rain should come to an end most locations 
not too long after that. Did keep slight chance/low chance probability of precipitation in 
far southern counties after 06z...otherwise dry weather to prevail 
as surface ridge builds in. Low temperatures will depend on how much we 
clear out tonight. For now have around 40 far north to lower 50s far 
south and southeast. 


On Thursday...ridge to build in with northerly flow persisting. 
Despite plenty of sunshine...temperatures will struggle to reach the upper 
50s to middle 60s. 


By tomorrow night...winds lighten under mostly clear skies...with 
lows in the upper 30s to lower 40s. 


Some concern about precipitation chances on Friday despite surface ridge as 
shortwave under cuts the ridge. However...moisture will be limited 
so for now have kept forecast dry. Highs will be in the low to middle 
60s. 


Our coldest night yet this fall will be Friday night as reinforcing 
shot of cooler air comes in. Lows to dip into the upper 30s most 
locations...so could see some frost in low lying areas. Will 
continue to mention this in the severe weather potential statement. 


On Saturday...Ridge begins to move off to our east allowing 
southerly winds to return once again. Temperatures will rebound somewhat 
over the weekend ahead of the next frontal boundary that will slide 
through on Monday. Highs will be in the middle to upper 60s on Saturday 
and in the upper 60s to lower 70s on Sunday. 


As for Monday...still some questions as to how much moisture will be 
available and front/S strength. For now have silent slight chance 
probability of precipitation during the day. Otherwise...dry and cool weather to persist 
through midweek next week. 


Byrd 


&& 


Aviation... 
/557 PM CDT Wednesday Oct 15 2008/ 
for the 00z tafs...cold front has moved through the taf sites pushing 
the rain east of the area. Some brief dz will be possible for a couple 
of hours. Ceilings will be MVFR at uin and cou for a couple of hours 
before clearing out. Stl and sus should improve to MVFR...with a 
very brief period of IFR possible...before clearing out around 
midnight tonight. Once the clouds clear out of the taf sites... 
conditions will be VFR and winds should remain northwesterly through the end of 
the forecast period. 


Tilly 


&& 


Lsx watches/warnings/advisories... 
MO...none. 
Illinois...none. 
&& 


$$ 


Weather forecast office lsx