099 
fxus63 kpah 232105 
afdpah 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Paducah Kentucky 
300 PM CST Monday Nov 23 2009 


Discussion... 
grundgy conditions will prevail through Tuesday evening. All 
guidance having a hard time with T/dew points today...generally went above 
guidance or near milder mav numbers for lows tonight. 


Late tonight...most models develop a band of showers over western 
Arkansas. However...they differ in how far east the band will thrive 
into our area. The European model (ecmwf) which is favored...lifts the showers 
northeast with an upper-level jet through southeast Missouri and 
southern Illinois...with only meager quantitative precipitation forecast over west Kentucky. The NAM 
is on the other extreme...bringing a nice band of showers eastward 
with the front through the entire area. The GFS is somewhere in 
between. Gut feeling is that much of west Kentucky may not see much 
quantitative precipitation forecast with this event. The models are in agreement in timing...with 
the showers reaching southeast Missouri in the late morning...and 
exiting the east/northeast in the evening. 


Wednesday and Wednesday night should be dry...as we await the next 
upper level low/trough to drop through the area on Thanksgiving. 
Cannot see any support for the Wednesday night pop...so removed 
them. Will keep 20-30 probability of precipitation east of the Mississippi Thursday...but 
will only mention rain showers. Feel that the low-levels will be too 
warm for snow to reach the ground. The cold air is there aloft with 
this system...but there is no cold surface high pressure for this 
storm system to work with. Cannot completely rule out a stray flake 
or two in the Evansville area...but chance is too meager to mention. 


Friday and Saturday should be dry. In the extended...the GFS and 
European model (ecmwf) are in agreement in bringing a large middle/upper level trough 
eastward into the plains by Sunday. This will push a front through 
the area at some point Sunday through Monday. Some moisture will try 
to lift northeast ahead of the front...so have 20-30 probability of precipitation for Sunday 
through Monday. 


The models vary beyond Monday...but a closed upper level low has 
been prominent in several runs. This low in some runs is rather deep 
and could cause some potential for wintry precipitation somewhere in 
the southeast states...including our area...Tuesday or Wednesday. 


&& 


Aviation... 
MVFR ceilings will be the rule for the next 24 hours. Main 
exception will be some IFR ceilings currently over the western half 
of the area. These should be lifting in the next hour or two at kcgi 
and kpah. Could also see some ceilings dropping into IFR levels 
overnight...but not confident enough to mention that at this time. 
Could see a stray shower in the northeast early this 
afternoon...otherwise forecast will be dry. Could see some MVFR fog 
development throughout the region overnight. Without clearing or 
well-defined boundary do not expect to see any worse fog conditions 
tonight. 


&& 


Pah watches/warnings/advisories... 
Kentucky...none. 
MO...none. 
Illinois...none. 
In...none. 
&& 


$$ 


Drs