350 
fxus63 kddc 072050 
afdddc 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Dodge City Kansas 
350 PM CDT sun Sep 7 2008 


Discussion... 


Days 1-2... 


A strong shortwave trough was moving across the northern rockies 
today. This system will move across the Central Plains tonight 
and early Monday. Strong warm advection will develop across our 
northern counties late this evening into tonight. The low levels 
were recovering nicely across eastern Colorado up to the Front 
Range this afternoon. As the shortwave trough gets closer, 
storms should develop along the Front Range south of Pueblo early 
this evening and then propagate east/NE into the western Kansas low 
level jet. The models indicate that capping could be a problem 
across much of the forecast area as +19c 800mb temperatures spread NE 
overnight. The best chance of storms should be in our far north. 
Given the strong veering of the wind at and above the frontal 
surface, elevated severe storms are possible. 


By 12z the front should be located in our far northern counties. 
The true warm sector may stay south of ddc tonight so lows 
may drop to near 60 given the rather light winds. The timing 
of the front will be tricky for Monday. Current thinking is that 
the front will be near ddc 15-16z and then p28 by 20z. Highs at 
ddc could reach 65 before the front comes trough, then fall into 
the lower to middle 50s in the afternoon. Solid low cloud cover will 
keep maxes lower. If the front is 1 to 2 hours faster then the maximum 
at ddc could be in the middle or upper 50s. Lows will actually be 
at 15z at gck/hys and possibly even ddc. 


Skies should gradually clear Monday evening. With light winds, 
lows will easily drop into the 40s in most places, with some 
readings as cool as 40f from gck to hys. 


Only a slow recovery in temperatures can be expected on Tuesday as 
the low level flow remains east/se. 




Days 3-7... 


Did not change much to the existing going extended forecast. The 
medium range models have not changed in the past 3 runs, so status 
quo for the days 3 through 5. Just small probability of precipitation in the northwest flow 
and with chances for small scale waves to travel through the upper 
flow. The European model (ecmwf) and GFS models have come much closer together in 
handling the next tropical cyclone, Ike. Now it seems the strong 
upper cyclone may come onshore just west of New Orleans, slow down a 
bit as it disconnects from any west-northwest flow in the tropics, and then 
gets caught up in the large scale upper trough moving out of the 
plains. Just in time, a cold front will undercut this upper energy 
of Ike near the Mississippi River valley from Iowa southward, about 
Tuesday. This front should push east-southeast and will possibly 
bring some mountain flooding rains to the southern Appalachians. 
All this does not directly affect southwestern Kansas, but does Bode 
well in bringing confidence to the model output. With 2 long term 
models both agreeing on the track of hurricane (or former hurricane 
ike), this usually means they are both picking up on strong signals 
in the atmosphere and can forecast those signals downstream well. 


Concerning pops, will continue with slight chances in my southeast 
and east late Tuesday night into Wednesday night as one wave passes 
southeast through central Kansas and drags a weak cold front with 
it. In the Post frontal environment, some day time heating Thursday 
afternoon may trigger a few storms in the southeastern County Warning Area. Down 
scaled probability of precipitation to less than 10 percent for Friday through Sunday, as 
high pressure should be controlling our part of the state. Threw in 
slight probability of precipitation into day 8, Monday, as there could be a strong wave 
moving through The Rockies on Sunday and into the plains Sunday. 


As for temperatures, Wednesday appears the warmest in the pre 
frontal warm sector. Highs should be in the middle to upper 80s west 
varying to low to middle 80s east. We should cool down into the 
middle-upper 70s north-northwest to the middle 80s South Range for the 
periods Thursday through Sunday. Minimum temperatures will 
generally be in the 50s to lower 60s, with the coolest morning being 
the Thursday nt/Friday morning behind the exiting front. 


Aviation... 


Through 06z or so, expect MVFR ceilings in the 012-015 range. After 
06z, ceilings and visibilities will be on the way down first at ddc and gck and 
later after 09z in hys taf area. A few thunderstorms are possible 
in the hys area after 06z, but that is only a slight chance. If 
isolated storms do develop, gusty surface winds to 45kts will be 
possible near the thunderstorms. Ceilings/visibilities after 06z are expected 
in the IFR category, averaging in the ovc008/5sm br to ovc003/2sm br 
range. These lower IFR conditions will persist through 15z on 
Monday. 




&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
ddc 60 65 42 69 / 20 20 20 0 
gck 53 60 42 70 / 20 20 0 0 
eha 56 62 42 72 / 0 0 0 0 
lbl 60 64 42 71 / 0 0 0 0 
hys 52 56 42 68 / 50 40 0 0 
p28 63 85 48 69 / 0 20 20 0 


&& 


Ddc watches/warnings/advisories... 
none. 
&& 


$$ 


Fn24/12