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fxus63 kgld 282316 
afdgld 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Goodland Kansas 
516 PM MDT Thursday Aug 28 2008 


Discussion... 
234 PM MDT Thursday Aug 28 2008 


Upper flow will be zonal through Friday night. By Saturday a ridge 
will amplify over the plains as a trough moves into the Pacific 
northwest. By Saturday night the ridge will shift east putting the 
Central Plains in southwest flow. This pattern will continue through 
Sunday. Surface high pressure will continue over the Central Plains 
through Friday. Low pressure will move into eastern Colorado on 
Saturday and continue through Sunday night. 


Lack of any significant shortwave will keep probability of precipitation none through Friday. 
There is a weak wave indicated for Friday/Friday night but dynamics 
are just to the south so will increase to silent probability of precipitation in southernmost 
zones. There is another suspect wave Saturday but there is no 
apparent upward vertical velocities associated with it so will 
discount for now. Slight chance probability of precipitation for Sunday/Sunday night still 
look reasonable with both the GFS/NAM so will keep intact. 


NAM boundary layer relative humidity indicates the potential for some stratus and 
possibly some patchy fog over the extreme southwest zones late 
tonight/early Friday morning. 


South wind increases to the breezy category Sunday ahead of the next 
trough but should stay below advisory levels. 


850mb temperatures rise from the lower 20s to the upper 20s by 
Sunday. Maximum temperatures should rise from the middle 80s on Friday to 
around 90 Sat/sun. Min temperatures will range from the middle/upper 
50s tonight to the lower to middle 60s by Sat/sun. 


In the extended...southwest flow will continue to bring shortwave 
energy across northwest Kansas Monday/Monday night while an upper 
low is positioned across western Colorado. By Tuesday afternoon the 
upper low moves to the Canadian border with dynamics fading. Zonal 
flow/subsidence follows for Wed/Thu. A surface trough will be over 
eastern Colorado on Monday which will shift east Monday night 
allowing high pressure into northwest Kansas which will persist 
through Thursday. Slight chance probability of precipitation will be kept through Tuesday 
morning but will trim back probability of precipitation to none Tuesday afternoon as dynamics 
pull away. None probability of precipitation will last through Thursday. 850mb temperatures 
drop several degrees behind the trough Tuesday/Wednesday and then 
warmup some Thursday. Maximum temperatures should start out on Saturday 
in the upper 80s to 90 and then cool to around 80 on Wednesday. Min 
temperatures will fall from the upper 50/lower 60s Monday night to 
the lower 50s for the remaining time. 


Fs 
&& 


Aviation... 
515 PM MDT Thursday Aug 28 2008 


For the 00z taf cycle...VFR conditions are expected through the 
entire taf period. Much lower dew points are advecting into the area 
from the northeast. So despite the light upslope surface winds am 
not expecting fog or stratus to develop tonight. Return flow around 
the surface high will gradually shift winds around to the southeast 
on Friday. Will have to watch for maybe some isolated thunderstorms 
approaching kgld in the afternoon...but best chances appear to stay 
to the south. 


24 
&& 


Gld watches/warnings/advisories... 
Kansas...none. 
NE...none. 
Colorado...none. 
&& 


$$ 


Weather forecast office Goodland