243 
fxus63 kgld 231118 
afdgld 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Goodland Kansas 
417 am MST Monday Nov 23 2009 


Discussion... 
142 am MST Monday Nov 23 2009 


A shortwave trough over the northern rockies was digging southeast 
toward the central rockies early this morning. Widespread dense fog 
should begin to erode across the far eastern zones as large scale 
forcing for ascent spreads downstream across the region with 
approaching middle/upper trough. Precipitation should begin to develop 
across eastern Colorado early this morning spreading rapidly east 
through the day. A rain/snow transition area is anticipated near 
Highway 83 advancing slowly east through the afternoon/early 
evening. Generally followed the sref/GFS with placement of 500 mb trough 
which was further north and east when compared to the NAM. A period 
of strong winds is expected to impact the southwest zones, generally 
west of the Colorado state line where steep low level lapse rates/low 
level cold air advection will be juxtaposed with strong large scale forcing for 
subsidence this afternoon from 18-23z. Further east, light mixed 
precipitation is anticipated behind frontal passage and raised probability of precipitation along the 
I-70 corridor and points north and east. Due to the progressive 
nature of the trough, only minor accumulations around an inch or two 
are anticipated before precipitation ends overnight. 


A short wave ridge will return to the High Plains on Tuesday leading to 
seasonable temperatures in the middle/upper 40s. A clipper system will 
dig into the upper Mississippi Valley area on Wednesday driving a cold 
front south across the area on Wednesday with temperatures holding in the 
40s. 


Days 4 through 7...no changes. 


McGuire 


&& 


Aviation... 
417 am MST Monday Nov 23 2009 


For the 12z taf cycle... dense freezing fog will be slow to 
dissipate at kmck this morning...probably not until the easterly 
wind component is lost. Even then stratus will continue to wrap 
westward around the developing low pressure center in western 
Kansas. Precipitation should develop fairly rapidly...as light snow 
at kgld by 18z and rain/snow in kmck this afternoon...changing to 
snow tonight. Accumulations of an inch or two are possible at either 
location...and north winds gusting over 30kts could produce some 
blowing and drifting through early evening. 


024 
&& 


Gld watches/warnings/advisories... 
Kansas...dense fog advisory until 9 am CST this morning for ksz004-016. 


NE...none. 
Colorado...Wind Advisory from 11 am this morning to 4 PM MST this afternoon 
for coz090>092. 


&& 


$$