478 
fxus63 kict 282352 
afdict 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Wichita Kansas 
652 PM CDT Thursday Aug 28 2008 


Update... 


Aviation...00z tafs: [krsl/ksln/khut/kict/kcnu] 
cold frontal boundary just to the northwest of kict has lead to some 
convection developing in the neighboring County. Current short 
term models and extrapolation suggest this boundary will continue 
to progress to the southeast as the night time progress. So will 
include a thunderstorms in the vicinity in the kict and later on for the kcnu tafs until 
06z in case any storm can develop along the front as it moves 
through. 


The rest of the taf sites in central Kansas will see a return to VFR 
conditions overnight into Friday as northerly winds settle into the 
area after the frontal passage. 


Frontal boundary could still linger over southeast Kansas for the 
afternoon on Friday. Not too sure we will see any convection in and 
near the kcnu taf site...so will only go with a cumulonimbus cloud deck for 
now. 


Ketcham 


&& 


Previous discussion... /issued 340 PM CDT Thursday Aug 28 2008/ 


Discussion... 


Tonight: 


Main focus is front and potential for convective initiation and 
intensity. So far precipitation has been well Post-frontal... 
although not sure if that trend will continue. Limiting factors so 
far have been the cap and relatively weak convergence on both pre- 
frontal trough and the front. May see better chance of rain this 
evening behind the front. Of note the three local models all push 
the front through the area faster than the global forecast system 
model which was also faster than the North American model. Our 
WRF-kf 32km keeps all the precipitation east of I-35 after 
0000 UTC. With its cinh remaining fairly high...would anticipated 
only isolated-scattered converage unless substantial cold pool 
can form. Storms will be relatively slow moving so main threat 
will be locally heavy rain. 


Fri: 


With relatively weak forcing behind front...850mb boundary will 
remain hung up somewhere between Highway 400 and just south of OK 
border. As flow veers during the day...upslope component and 
afternoon heating may be sufficient to produce isolated/scattered 
convection. Best chance would likely be in the extreme southwest 
part of the forecast area. Temperatures/dew points will be a bit 
higher across the southern half than previously advertised. 


Sat-Sun: 


While low level flow will continue to veer...both baroclinicity and 
advective components appear to be weak and would likely preclude 
precipitation. Some possibility of ripple in upper flow on 
sun/Sun night...and mainly for consistency...kept low probability 
of precipitation going in far western sections. 


Monday-Thu: 


While low level moisture may be lurking around the area at the 
beginning of period...latest model runs do not seem to suggest 
favorable covergence or support for precipitation. However by 
Wednesday-Thursday another cold front will approach the northwest while fringe 
of tropical remnants could move into southeast Kansas. While some small 
dry slot will likely develop between these two systems... 
uncertainty of location and timing suggest attempting to forecast 
that scenerio would not be prudent. Did however shade probability 
of precipitation highest in southeast Kansas where just about any 
scenerio should result in some chance of precipitation...ie faster 
front with no tropical influence...or greater tropical influence. 
-Howerton 


Aviation... 


For 18z tafs...main aviation concern will be convective chances 
associated with cold front. 


Cold front is currently through krsl and north of ksln. Most of the 
convection so far today has been Post frontal over southern NE. Not 
too impressed with the amount of convergence that is occurring and 
is forecasted along the front. Therefore not too sure we're going to 
see too much in the way of storm coverage late this afternoon and 
evening. Therefore only mentioned thunderstorms in the vicinity and cumulonimbus in the cloud groups 
with no tempos at this time. Also concerned that much of the precipitation 
maybe Post frontal like is occurring now and also what the GFS is 
forecasting. If this is the case will have to linger isolated 
convection longer overnight. Behind the front winds will flip around 
to the north and then northeast with the better gusts remaining over 
central Kansas. 


Lawson 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Wichita-kict 70 89 68 89 / 20 20 10 10 
Hutchinson 68 87 66 89 / 20 10 10 10 
Newton 68 87 66 88 / 30 10 10 10 
Eldorado 70 88 66 88 / 30 10 10 10 
Winfield-kwld 73 91 69 90 / 20 20 20 10 
Russell 63 86 64 88 / 20 10 10 10 
Great Bend 65 86 67 88 / 20 10 10 10 
Salina 67 88 65 90 / 20 10 10 10 
McPherson 67 86 66 89 / 20 10 10 10 
Coffeyville 71 93 66 91 / 20 20 10 10 
Chanute 68 90 64 89 / 30 20 10 10 
Iola 66 89 63 89 / 30 10 10 10 
Parsons-kppf 71 91 65 90 / 20 20 10 10 


&& 


Ict watches/warnings/advisories... 
none. 
&& 


$$