443 
fxus63 kddc 151924 
afdddc 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Dodge City Kansas 
224 PM CDT Wednesday Oct 15 2008 


Discussion... 


Days 1-2... 


Forecast problem will be extent of frost tonight. 


Upper air analysis showed the strong upper wave that brought all 
the rain continuing to weaken and move east out of the region this 
morning. Weak shortwave ridging was on its heels moving out of the 
northern and central rockies this morning. Surface analysis at 18z 
showed a ridge of high pressure extending south across western 
South Dakota into northwest Kansas. Drier air with dewpoints in 
the upper was moving south across Nebraska this afternoon. Surface 
parcel trajectories suggest that this air will be into central and 
parts of west central and southwest Kansas late tonight. 


With the axis of the surface ridge extending along a hys-ddc axis 
by Thursday morning...winds should become light and variable. 
Think that the cooler met MOS numbers in the low 30s around hys 
and middle 30s at ddc may work out pretty well. The combination of 
cold temperatures and light winds will be a good setup for frost 
especially around Hays. Have decided to issue a frost advisory for 
the Hays/WaKeeney/Ness City /LaCrosse areas later tonight into 
early Thursday. Farther south and west the frost should be more 
patchy due to somewhat warmer temperatures and southerly flow 
returning to the western County Warning Area behind the surface ridge. 


On Thursday southerly flow increases as pressures fall in the Lee 
of The Rockies and we should see breezy conditions develop. With 
the surface airmass recycled out of the high pressure don't expect 
a big warmup so highs in the middle 60s look good. Another shortwave 
trough will be moving out of the northern rockies across the 
northern plains late Thursday night. Do not expect anything from 
this wave other than some scattered middle/upper clouds and a shift 
to north/northeast winds. 


Days 3-7... 


Period should start out fairly quiet with upper ridging over the 
plains. Continued to keep dry weather with highs in the 70s for the 
weekend. Medium range models are in pretty good agreement on 
bringing a northern branch shortwave down into central Canada Sunday 
and into the upper Midwest Monday. This should help push a decent 
frontal boundary down somewhere in the Central Plains. GFS and 
European model (ecmwf) both have 850mb temperatures getting down into the single digits c, 
although the European model (ecmwf) is about 4 degrees cooler. There is some upslope 
and if we get a lot of cloud cover highs could not get out of the 
50s. However, there is still some uncertainty so will continue with 
highs in the 60s, lowering readings a bit in the north. 


Next big question is what exactly happens to the next upper trough 
that digs into the west early next week. Both the deterministic GFS 
and European model (ecmwf) cut off the system somewhere over The Rockies. By 
Wednesday, the GFS takes the system out into the plains, while the 
European model (ecmwf) keeps it wallowing near the Desert Southwest. Ensemble 
members are all over the place, but seem to lean away from troughing 
in the west as long as the deterministic European model (ecmwf) has it. Uncertainty 
is high, ranging from a long period of possible rain to even US 
getting dry-slotted. Will go with a middle of the Road approach and 
run low probability of precipitation Tuesday night through Wednesday, and will refine as the 
period gets closer. Kept highs Tuesday and Wednesday mainly in the 
60s for now, although it could be cooler if the faster solution 
verifies and/or we get socked in with clouds. 


&& 


Aviation... 


Think that MVFR ceilings will start to scatter out by 21z or so, and 
Sat trends seem to go along with this. Skies will become clear 
overnight with winds becoming light and variable with the surface high 
pressure center nearby. Some stratus/fog formation is possible 
along the High Plains, with winds becoming southeasterly around the 
Colorado border by morning. Think that this could bring some IFR or less 
out there, but it should stay west of the taf sites. 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
ddc 35 64 40 69 / 0 0 0 0 
gck 36 64 40 68 / 0 0 0 0 
eha 40 68 43 71 / 0 0 0 0 
lbl 38 67 42 72 / 0 0 0 0 
hys 33 63 40 67 / 0 0 0 0 
p28 40 64 42 70 / 0 0 0 0 


&& 


Ddc watches/warnings/advisories... 
frost advisory from 4 am to 9 am CDT Thursday for ksz030-031-045- 
046. 


&& 


$$ 


Fn02/26