951 
fxus63 kict 210444 
afdict 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Wichita Kansas 
1144 PM CDT Sat Mar 20 2010 


Update... 


Aviation...06z tafs krsl/ksln/khut/kict/kcnu 


Winter storm continues across southeast Kansas at this time...with visibilities 
near kcnu still in the MVFR range as snow bands have waned some over 
the last few hours. Do expect the MVFR snow conditions across 
southeast Kansas to continue with IFR ceilings as another band of snow 
moves northwest out of northestern OK into southeast Kansas....affecting the kcnu taf 
site before 12z/sun. Will see a general improvement in the kcnu taf 
site as sun progresses. Could see the light snow actually turn 
back over to light rain by Sun afternoon as warm air continues to 
wrapped into this strong system. 


Will see VFR conditions for the rest of the taf sites west of this 
system. 


Ketcham 


&& 


Previous discussion... /issued 907 PM CDT Sat Mar 20 2010/ 


Update... 


Middle level baroclinic zone that led to heavy snow just to the east of 
ict to wane some as the evening has progressed. This has also led 
to light snow ending to the west of the Turnpike for the Wichita 
metropolitan area. Pv-anomaly over southern OK is beginning to lift to the 
northeast at this time. This has led to a dry slot working into 
portions of southeastern Kansas...with a narrow area of moderate snow still 
occurring along the Flint Hills. Have decided to end the Winter 
Weather Advisory for most areas west of Wichita as snow has ended 
and blowing snow has subsided. Am a little concerned about short 
term models actually wrapping some light snow back into the 
west...possibly back in Wichita late tonight...so gonna hold onto 
the advisory along a Sedgwick to Harvey to Marion line for a little 
while longer. Could see this portion of the advisory cancelled late 
tonight...if precipitation trends stay to the east of the area. 


For areas further east....mid level frontogenesis looks to wane some 
for now...but storm looks to intensify for the overnight hours as 
middle level trowel becomes more defined across southern Kansas as pv-anomaly 
over OK deepens over eastern OK...so expect another area of moderate to 
heavy snow to develop over southeast Kansas...possibly as far west as 
the Flint Hills late tonight. This next band of snow will push some 
areas into the 8 to 12 inch snowfall range. Also still concerned 
about blowing and drifting of snow across southeast Kansas as well...so 
will certainly keep the warming going...as reports still suggest 
that driving across southeast Kansas is not recommended. 


Ketcham 


Previous discussion... /issued 642 PM CDT Sat Mar 20 2010/ 


Aviation...00z tafs krsl/ksln/khut/kict/kcnu 


Winter storm continue across most of southeast Kansas at this 
time...with visibilities near kcnu varying 1/2 mile to near one mile in 
moderate snow. Ceilings across this area also in the IFR range from 
as low as 600 feet to around 900 feet as snow bands rotate across 
this area. Gusty winds out of the north have also led to some 
blowing snow as accumulations begin to pile up. Conditions continue 
to improve east of this area for the kict and khut taf sites with 
this area losing the MVFR ceiling deck. With VFR conditions 
returning to krsl and ksln. 


Expect the worst aviation conditions to continue across southeastern Kansas 
tonight...with bands of moderate snow rotating into this area. So 
will keep this area down in IFR visibilities or ceilings for tonight. Could 
also see some MVFR ceilings flirt with areas just east of kict...and 
possibly see some flurries move back into kict by 12z/sun as another 
impulse rotates around the storm. But will not put this in kict's 
taf for now. 


Most of central Kansas will see VFR conditions into sun. 


Ketcham 


Previous discussion... /issued 302 PM CDT Sat Mar 20 2010/ 


Discussion... 
forecast concern...continues to be heavy snow across the 
Flint Hills and southeast tonight into Sunday morning. 


The overall system evolution continues to be handled fairly 
well by the short term models...with the upper low prognosticated 
to deepen into a closed low as it moves along the Red River 
valley tonight. Persistent isentropic lift is prognosticated to 
focus across the Flint Hills and southeast Kansas...with a 
well defined middle level trowal axis developing by Sunday 
morning as this system GOES through the occlusion process. 
Snowfall amounts across this area have already reached the 
3 to 6 inch range early this afternoon...and expect another 3 
to 6 inches is likely through midday Sunday. Will continue to 
show a rather sharp pop gradient across the middle portion of the 
forecast area...just west of the Turnpike tonight. Some light 
snow may persist along this area...including Wichita...this 
evening...and/or redevelop back west a bit later tonight as the 
low wraps up into a closed system. We plan to continue a Winter 
Storm Warning as advertised and will include Sumner County past 
00z this evening...mainly for southeast portion of the County. 
Will have a Winter Weather Advisory for a couple row of counties 
west of this area...for combo of wind/blowing snow with chances 
for a bit more light snow. 


The GFS and NAM continue to show significant warm air aloft 
advecting west across southeast Kansas during Sunday...with 
potential for a changeover to a rain/snow and sleet mix in the 
afternoon before the precipitation ends. Considering snow totals by then 
will likely approach and exceed a foot in some areas...this 
wintry mix should not cause any additional significant impact. 
Western portions of the area...especially central Kansas will see 
sunshine on Sunday with comparatively milder maximums than southeast 
Kansas. 


What would otherwise be a nice day on Monday will be tempered by 
the snow cover...especially across southeast Kansas. Will continue 
to shade maximums significantly cooler in these areas. Another mild 
day is on tap for Tuesday before a cold front sinks south across 
the area by Tuesday night. Precipitation chances...mainly rain for 
now...will increase by Wednesday and Thursday...as an upper trough 
across the west migrates east across the Central Plains. 


Darmofal 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Wichita-kict 26 42 23 55 / 40 20 0 0 
Hutchinson 24 45 22 55 / 20 10 0 0 
Newton 25 41 22 54 / 40 20 0 0 
Eldorado 26 39 22 53 / 70 30 0 0 
Winfield-kwld 28 40 22 54 / 70 40 0 0 
Russell 18 48 22 60 / 10 10 0 0 
Great Bend 19 48 22 60 / 10 10 0 0 
Salina 24 46 22 57 / 20 10 0 0 
McPherson 24 44 22 55 / 20 10 0 0 
Coffeyville 29 36 23 48 / 100 100 10 0 
Chanute 28 36 23 47 / 100 90 10 0 
Iola 27 36 22 47 / 100 90 10 0 
Parsons-kppf 28 36 23 47 / 100 100 10 0 


&& 


Ict watches/warnings/advisories... 
Winter Weather Advisory until 7 am CDT Sunday for ksz052-068-083. 


Winter Storm Warning until 7 am CDT Sunday for ksz053-069-070- 
092-093. 


Winter Storm Warning until 1 PM CDT Sunday for ksz071-072- 
094>096-098>100. 


&& 


$$ 

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