106 
fxus63 kict 152302 
afdict 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Wichita Kansas 
602 PM CDT Wednesday Oct 15 2008 




Aviation...00z tafs krsl/ksln/khut/kict/kcnu 
surface high pressure will build into the Midwest during the taf 
period. The clouds will continue to move southeast of kcnu...and 
clear skies and light winds will be the rule at all taf sites. 
Patchy fog is possible if winds become very light...but any fog 
should be shallow. 


Schreck 


&& 


Previous discussion... /issued 308 PM CDT Wednesday Oct 15 2008/ 


Discussion... 


Forecast challenges/ concerns deal with frost potential tonight and 
system moving into the region toward the middle of next week. 


Tonight: 
central Kansas will increasingly be under the influence of the left-rear 
quadrant of the upper jet. Surface high pressure will also be sliding 
south tonight. The two will act to clear skies out by Thursday early 
morning and with the surface ridge axis expected to be across 
central Kansas... decoupling surface winds... temperatures should 
bottom out in the low to middle 30s. This will lead to decent frosting 
across parts of central Kansas. Will issue a frost advisory for 
Russell/Barton/Lincoln and Ellsworth for the items mentioned above. 
Ground temperatures remain very high however... in the upper 60s... 
across central Kansas and moist grounds from recent rains may act 
to create a shallow layer of fog. I have lower confidence in fog 
at this point than frost due to advection of dry air but felt it 
Worth mentioning as a possibility. 


Friday - monday: 
a warming trend is expected... relative to the last few days... 
through the weekend into the beginning of next week. Dry weather is 
expected for this time period as well as upper ridging builds for 
the weekend and more zonal flow on Monday. 


Tuesday - wednesday: 
GFS and the European model (ecmwf) show a powerful storm system moving into the 
plains for the middle of next week. The GFS seems to be the preferred 
model based on National guidance but with support from the latest 
European model (ecmwf) feel that adding slight chance probability of precipitation to the extended is prudent. 
The GFS is deeper with the system... bringing a very strong pv 
anomaly through the Central Plains... while the European model (ecmwf) wants to take the 
bulk of the energy through the northern plains. 


Cdb 


Aviation...18z tafs krsl/ksln/khut/kict/kcnu 


Main issue will be dealing with pesky layered clouds. Residual low 
level moisture and lift associated with 300mb jet/upper trough 
have resulted in redevelopment of MVFR ceilings across central 
Kansas this morning. Still anticipate improving conditions throughout 
the day with clear/mostly clear skies around sunset. Winds should 
diminish during the night as ridge axis moves across with return to 
southeast flow over most of area on Thursday morning. -Howerton 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Wichita-kict 44 64 42 67 / 0 0 0 0 
Hutchinson 38 63 42 67 / 0 0 0 0 
Newton 39 63 42 65 / 0 0 10 0 
Eldorado 40 63 42 65 / 0 0 0 0 
Winfield-kwld 42 66 41 68 / 0 0 0 0 
Russell 34 64 40 69 / 0 0 10 0 
Great Bend 35 63 40 69 / 0 0 0 0 
Salina 37 63 41 67 / 0 0 10 10 
McPherson 37 64 41 67 / 0 0 10 0 
Coffeyville 43 64 41 68 / 10 0 0 0 
Chanute 41 63 41 67 / 10 0 0 10 
Iola 41 63 40 66 / 10 0 10 10 
Parsons-kppf 42 64 40 67 / 10 0 0 0 


&& 


Ict watches/warnings/advisories... 
frost advisory from 4 am to 10 am CDT Thursday for ksz032-033- 
047-048. 


&& 


$$